NHL Stanley Cup: Conference Finals Preview
32 became 16; 16 became 8; and now 8 have become 4. We look at the Final 4 with great intrigue. All betting favorites in their respective series make it through again and we still have yet to see an upset in this NHL Playoff. This round had all series go to at least game 6, with one going all the way to Game 7. Florida holds off the scrappy Boston Bruins. The New York Rangers managed to find the net enough to stop the better 5 on 5 team in the Carolina Hurricanes. Dallas Stars held off an Avalanche team that has faced notable hardships and sits with questions going forward. And finally, the Edmonton Oilers dug deep and found their game in the last 2 games of the series to move on. It is going to be a fun and competitive Conference Final. Someone who hasn’t won since at least 1999 will hoist Lord Stanley’s in just 4 weeks time.
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL
New York Rangers (1 Metro Division) vs. Florida Panthers (1 Atlantic Division)
The New York Rangers found a way to close out their series against the Canes in just 6 games, after going up 3-0 in the series. They dropped games 4 and 5 and started to plant doubt in some fans. Game 6 we saw the Canes take the lead by a margin and we all thought it was going to game 7, but Chris Kreider rallies his team in the 3rd and scores a hattrick in that period to send his team to the Eastern Conference Final. The big story was the fact that the Rangers were the better finishers and had the better goaltending, despite largely getting outplayed 5 on 5. The Hurricanes were outshooting, out battling, and outplaying the Rangers in large parts of this series, but Igor Shesterkin managed to keep his team in it every step of the way. The skaters up front found timely scoring, led by Kreider and Vince Trocheck. The goaltending on the Rangers side will be the continuing factor for their ride to the Cup Final because they are about to face a much better finishing team. As much as see the major flaws with the plus/minus stat, the entire team was -12 on the series, showing how important the PP numbers. They get by on 5 on 5 and dominate their powerplay, that’s their identity. They will need to up their 5 on 5 game and continue their dominance on the power play on this one. The Rangers will live and die by Shesterkin going forward.
The nasty Florida Panthers imposed their will on the Boston Bruins, and while I know it was a 6-game series, it really wasn’t close by my eye. The Panthers rallied after a dropped game 1 and they held control of the game in every single game aside from game 5 in which it was close and Jeremey Swayman stole the game completely. Goalie Bob hasn’t been the best we have seen but he’s been most certainly good enough as the team in front of him defend well and find their ways to score. The Panthers have a good enough power play and it doesn’t measure up to the Rangers, but their 5 on 5 game is most certainly more than up to par. Verhaeghe and Tkachuck was dominate in round 1 and it was Barkov and Reinhart that dominated the 2nd round. When Barkov is on the ice, the Panthers at 5 on 5 holds a whopping 50-25 in scoring chances. The Selke Winner is holding his title in the playoffs too, carrying the points and the defensive play. Florida’s back-end and overall defensive game will be a struggle for the Rangers as well as they allowed the fewest goals in the league during th regular season and are continuing their dominance in the post season. Goalie Bob will need to step up if the Panther are having to kill penalties.
This series is going to go long. On paper, the Panthers are the favorite, but the Rags have found ways to settle in games and find timely scoring, which is massive in the playoffs. The Rangers are feeling like a destiny esque team given their run is almost a mirror image of the Rags 1994 Cup Winning Run. The Rags will need to answer the physicality factor, which we already know that the Panthers will try to impose in every part of the ice. Matt Rempe is a secret weapon that may be unleashed in this series. At the end of the day, I look at the Panthers 5 on 5 play, the fact that less and less penalties will be called going forward, and the physicality will push this series long. The Rags will fight back, they will showcase why many think they have the best goaltending in the league, and they have the star power to compete. After its said and done, we will see the Panthers beat down their opponent over the course of 7 games and that 7th game is going to be amazing. Panthers in 7.
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL
Dallas Stars (1 Central Division) vs. Edmonton Oilers (2 Pacific Division)
The Dallas Stars are most certainly the deepest team in the league at this point. After letting Colorado back into game 1, I thought we were about to see the Avalanche take over the series and control it all of the way through. The Dallas Stars answered in kind with 3 straight wins, wining all of the games on the road, against the one team who were the most dominant at home. The scoring has come all through the lineup for this Dallas team, whose top point getter is Miro Heiskanen with 13 points. Wyatt Johnston has emerged as a star in this league and the ripe age of 21, and he’s imposed his will on these playoffs. While the team has only had one player above 70 points this year, they had 8 players score at least 20 goals and 10 players with at least 45 points. This is the team that runs 4 lines and can beat any line at any given time. They rank very high in 5 on 5 play in terms of expected goals. They are without Roope Hintz for the moment and that is a major loss, but they have guys who have stepped up to fill the whole. The Stars are a defensive team that runs through their depth as well. The team defense is a problem for many teams. Tanev ate hard minutes and the entire team managed to really stop the probable MVP in Nate MacKinnon and Cale Makar. Jake Oettinger has really settled in between the pipes as well, finding consistency in this playoff run. The Stars have depth of vets, prime stars, and ripe rookies that are all pulling the rope together and that has shown through in their run so far. They look unstoppable at this point.
The Edmonton Oilers faced adversity in their run, going down 3-2 in their series against the Canucks but dug deep and found their game when it mattered most. Offensively, the Oilers are the best in the league. Leon Draisaitl was the 3rd fastest player to 100 points in league history, only behind the two best players of all time, Gretzky and Lemieux. The emergence of Dylan Holloway on the top 6 with Leon and Evander Kane has been a major source of confidence in this lineup. He is a hungry player who has worked so well with the mean and nasty Drai/Kane pair. The depth is shallow in the bottom 6 at times, however, the Oilers are hoping to suit up Adam Henrique who will round out a struggling 3rd line. The Oilers 4th line, while weak on paper, has been a godsend for the Oilers and a major part of why they are here. Sam Carrick drew in game 6 and made an instant impact. Defensively, the Oilers are not who they used to be; they are defensive. Despite the fact that Evan Bouchard is scoring more points than any defenseman in the playoffs, by a margin, his emerging defensive game is showing through. Ceci and Nurse were split up and it worked wonders for this lineup. The Oilers D is a bit shallow at times but when they are keeping active stick and blocking shots, they look dominant. They will need to dig that much deeper. Finally, Connor McDavid is clearly not himself. He won’t shoot and is only passing. The JT Miller factor was certainly a factor in the Canucks series, but I don’t know if the Stars have a physical presence (outside of Jamie Benn) that will be able to do to Connor what Miller did. If he has just even a little more space, he could emerge as the Connor we know. Goaltending was a problem for the Oilers. Stu Skinner failed the team in many games early and was supplanted by Calvin Pickard who quite frankly saved the season for the Oilers. Skinner drew in games 6 and 7 after a rest and looked better, despite the lack of major testing. He will need to really elevate against a team that actually knows how to shoot and score.
The Oilers are in one. Plain and simple. The Dallas Stars are generally deeper and most certainly have better goaltending. They have speedy forwards and beat you with speed. The Defense core may not be as big and physical as the Canucks, but they are so strong defensively. The Dallas Stars roll 4 lines, and they can score up and down the lineup. Coach Knoblach will look to roll his 4 lines, but those lower lines will need to grind out their shifts and just not get caved in. The top talent on the Oilers side is better but its shallower for sure. The Oilers will need to split in Dallas to have a chance, by my estimation. I think getting to game 7 is a death sentence for the Oilers as veteran coach Pete Deboer doesn’t lose game 7s, he's a fantastic presence. I am going to go with my heart, and not my head as I think the Oilers and Connor McDavid will dig deep, learn from their mistakes in the Canucks series, find timely scoring, and be desperate enough to get it done. Oilers in 6 (I hope).
Side note, congratulations to San Jose for drawing their first overall pick in franchise history. They will pick Macklin Celebrini as he will join his family in the Bay Area, where he started his hockey career. Amazing story and all of a sudden, the Pacific Division is going to be nasty in a few years.