NHL Playoff Preview
The Previews are back, and we are back in late April. For the next 2 months, the remaining NHL teams will battle it out for the right to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup. It was a long regular season, a regular season this writer is so happy to be over. It was a drag at times, but we made it folks. This article is a little late but better late than never I suppose. Please enjoy the hockey that is about to be played because this round and playoffs is the best playoffs in sports.
2024 Round 1: Divisional Semifinal
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Toronto Maple Leafs (1st Atlantic Division) vs Ottawa Senators (1st East Wildcard)
The Toronto Maple Leafs are back in the playoffs, though many would believe this is the best Leafs team they’ve had in the recent run of postseasons. Coach Berube has this team humming and has brought a different feel for this team. The Leafs ended top in their division with 108 points and a +37 goal differential. Mitch Marner had quite the regular season, recording 102 points on the season. The Leafs have a pretty star-studded lineup as we know with the core of Matthews, Marner, Nylander and Tavares in tact with Matthew Knies coming off a fantastic season as well. Offensively, this team doesn’t have too many issues aside from what is between the ears for some of these guys. The Leafs also finished top 10 in goals against per game showing what Chris Tanev can do for a club. The issue is who is the true lock down D for this group, a D-man who can take over a game. The lineup may lack that. The goaltending tandem between Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll has been great, but their experience is to be desired, as they have 4 games combined in the post season.
The Ottawa Senators are back in the playoffs for the first time since their Eastern Conference Finals loss in 2017. The Senators are the first time of that group of up-and-coming teams to make the playoffs and they did so in pretty convincing fashion, ending the season with 97 points, just 1 point out of a divisional spot. The scoring came throughout the lineup with the top point getter in Stutzle with only 79 points. Their scoring depth showed up. They finished 21st in total offense but their ability to generate was top of the league. They need to find a way to finish. Defensively, coach Travis Green has helped mature this team. They finished top half of the chances and expected goals against and a large reason they finished here. Jake Sanderson was so impactful on the back end and will be asked to do the same here in round 1. Linus Ullmark had a solid season between the pipes but his playoff stats are much to be desired. He may have a Vezina but his play in the playoffs is far from Conn Smythe worthy, and he will need to be against this high octane Leafs team.
The Battle of Ontario is back baby for the first time since 2004. The Senators have been on the losing end of every single Battle of Ontario and will look to flip the script against their big brother. Defensively, I like the Senators lineup better. They have D-men who can really change the pace of the game and that to me is something to be watched. Offensively, Toronto has the star-studded lineup. This series will be emotional, and it will be up to Ottawa to stay out of the emotions of it all, which they failed here in game 1. The Leafs have the easiest path to the 2nd round in a very long while and they are the clear favorites. However, the longer this series go the deeper the seed of doubt could start to sprout. I like the defensive side of the Ottawa Senators to fix their game. Also, it would be so hilarious to see Ottawa beat Toronto. Give me Senators in Game 7.
Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd Atlantic Division) vs Florida Panthers (3rd Atlantic Division)
The Lightning look like the team that won multiple cups in the last 5 years. The rest they got last year after a tough first round exit might have been the best thing for them, even without their former captain Steven Stamkos. They are the deadliest offensive team who sports a top 5 PP. They are elite at finishing 5 on 5 which has been the huge reason they are where they are. Nakita Kucherov had another MVPesque season with 121 points and behind him the scoring was deep with 3 other scoring at or over 80 points. Nick Paul is their 3rd line center which is massive who all too often pots 20 goals a season. The Bolts have allowed the 4th fewest goal in the league, a function of both their defense and their goaltending. Andrei Vasilevsky, coming off a back surgery didn’t look great last year but that comp9letely changed this year. He’s sporting a very strong .927SV% since the 4-Nations. The Bolts look ready to go.
Last Year’s Stanley Cup Champion, Florida Panthers took a step back in the regular season as a result of some injuries and the loss of some key players. Sam Reinhart led the charge with 81 points but the scoring took a bit of dip beyond that, they had a single 30-goal scorer. However, some superstars were out for much of the season like Matty Tkachuk and Sasha Barkov. Defensively, they are still the kings of the anaconda chokehold. They have so much success coming from their team defense, led by none other than Sasha Barkov. The Panthers were the better defending team this season but their depth on the blueline this season is a bit questionable as of now. The acquisition of Seth Jones has not been great honestly. Goalie Bob showed us his best in the playoffs last year but he’s shown that he is human here in the regular season. Goalie Bob will need to dig into that playoff game from last year to stop their elite offense.
Given everything outlined, this was a coinflip for me. However, the very late start of the series is playing into the Florida Panthers favor given the injury to Matthew Tkachuk. His presence in a game could be game changing, he is that much of an impact at this point in the season. The Panthers will need to stay out of the box in this series which has been an issue this year. Tampa has the goaltending edge right now and the overall offensive edge, however the Panthers have the D and their hunger to get back to the Finals. This is going the distance, and it will be bloody. Give me Bolts in 7.
Washington Capitals (1st Metropolitan Division) vs Montreal Canadiens (2nd East Wildcard)
The Capitals were off to an incredible start and never looked back, surprising 99% of everyone who had this team barely making the playoffs this year. The Capital managed to not only take the top spot but they managed to get Alex Ovechkin to 897 career goals, beating out the once untouchable Wayne Gretzky record. He had quite the season to help lead his team to 2nd in the offense side of the game. There were many players who had career highs in goals, showing the depth of scoring for this team and their finish ability. Pierre Luc Dubois has changed his narrative and now will be asked to continue that after an awful playoff last year. Defensively, this team was middle of the pack in terms of 5-on-5 goals against. They aren’t as dominant 5 on 5 as their record showed which could be cause for concern. Their pure offense and great goaltending helped get them to where they were. Logan Thompson was traded to the Caps and he had a hell of season, a Vezina like season. He lost just 6 games in regulation and really help support his team who wasn’t the fleetest in terms of defending.
The only other Original Six team to make the playoffs, the Montreal Canadiens are back in the postseason. Montreal has jumped ahead of both the Red Wings and the Sabres in terms of reaching the post season and it wasn’t without some drama. The Habs had career years from Suzuki, Caulfield, and Slafkovsky, a core that has established itself. Suzuki almost missed out on 90 points. They also brought on phenom Demidov, who is going to ready to go. The Habs outscored their defensive problems as they can have issues in their own zone. They have a mixed bag of vets and young bloods and it could be a huge problem against the high-octane Capitals. Sam Montembault led the charge between the pipes and had a pretty solid season but has shown to be fully consistent. He has the ability to go head-to-head with Thompson but the edge might be in Caps favor here.
The Capitals haven’t looked fantastic as of late following the record beating goal by Ovechkin. The core, however, looks like that 2018 team and they have been great all season. The Habs are playing with house money, and they are no slouches, not with the injection of Demidov. The goaltending battle is a bit tighter than many want to admit but the experience and defensive ability could be the swing. I don’t love the Capitals in this playoff but I like them here in 6.
Carolina Hurricanes (2nd Metropolitan Division) vs New Jersey Devils (3rd Metropolitan Division)
The Hurricanes are back to the playoffs on the backs of their elite defending and solid goaltending. The Canes finished 3rd in shots on goal but 9th in overall scoring and a powerplay that leaves so much still to be desired. The offense, even with Sebastian Aho, is still a potential issue. However, the defense core is where this team has it going on. Jordan Staal as a forward is a key Selke finalist that really helps alleviate the pressure. But the Canes have the best shut down D in the game in Jacob Slavin. He is incredible. The Canes absolutely own the puck in terms of possession so I guess you can’t get scored on if you have the puck. They dominate the shot attempts in all ways and that has been huge for this team. If they could finish, they’d be a favorite no doubt. The Canes goaltending is a potential issue with uneven seasons for both Kotchetkov and Andersen. I expect this run will showcase both goalies splitting starts, something that doesn’t usually work but could be what is needed for the Canes.
The Devils had a very strong start to the season but barely kept their position due to a myriad of injuries. The Devils have relied on their powerplay to get them over the hump here with a ranking of 3rd in the league. 5 on 5 has been so bad for the Devils since the loss of Jack Hughes. Nico Hischier has been what the Devils need and expect but its not enough without the likes of Jack Hughes. His brother Luke has made strides on the back end and the team has Dougie Hamilton back which is a huge injection of life. Goaltending was supposed to be fixed after the Devils brought in Markstrom…that didn’t happen. The knee continues to hurt Markstrom and his recent play has been far too inconsistent for my liking.
The Hurricanes are clear favorites in this series, as the loss of Jack Hughes is probably too much to overcome. The Canes are the better 5 on 5 team, they love to own the puck, and they have the goaltending edge, even if it’s modest. The Hurricanes don’t have a superstar player but their committee can hang with anyone in the NHL. I have the Canes in 5 on this one.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Winnipeg Jets (1st Central Division) vs St. Louis Blues (2nd West Wildcard)
The Jets managed to win the President’s Trophy this season on the backs of a incredible ability to finish and most importantly having Connor Hellebuyck have an all-time season. The Jets, offensively, managed to outperform their chance generation levels, meaning they were finishing at an all-time level. They finished with a league-leading powerplay and finished 3rd in goals for, despite being 8th in expected goals for. Kyle Connor was a killer with 97 points, and Mark Scheifle had a fantastic season in his own right. Defensively is where this team really shines, and not just because of Helly. They finished first in goals against per game and 6th in expected goals against, meaning their suppression was really something to behold. Gabe Valardi on the back end has been a huge part of that. Then we get to the goaltending, where Connor Hellebuyck will be your Vezina trophy winner. He will also get votes for MVP. He finished well ahead in goals saved above expected, saving 20 more than the next best goalie. His issue has been playoffs…
The St. Louis Blues were not a team expected to make it after a pretty uneven start to the season. Their post 4-Nations push, on the backs of a huge statement win by Binnington, had them become the hottest team in the league for a while. The off-season offer sheets of Dylan Holloway and Phil Broberg proved to be a great bit of business for Doug Armstrong. Holloway, while now out for a very long time, finished with 63 points, something us Oilers fans would have really needed. The Blues have no star-studded lineup but has been getting it done by committee. Defensively, this team saw a big step forward with the aforementioned acquisitions really helping out. They may not have the edge, but their D can handle a lot when it comes to high octane offenses. Jordan Binnington had a solid season bwetwen the pipes but his win in the 4-Nations had us all remember the 2019 run he had in the Stanley Cup playoffs. He will need to bring that if he wishes to out battle Helly.
I think this is the trap series of the playoffs, as I don’t know if the Jets will be able to get it done given their poor work in the playoffs historically. The last time these two teams played in the playoffs was round 1 in 2019. A year where the Jets were excellent, and the Blues barely squeaked in…sound familiar. Hellebuyck’s game 1 was…yikes. His playoffs have historically been bad and if he plays like he did in game 1…it won’t be pretty yet again. Blues in 7.
Dallas Stars (2nd Central Division) vs Colorado Avalanche (3rd Central Division)
The Dallas Stars had another strong season but showed signs of weakness down the stretch. Some injuries and inconsistent play has some thinking that Dallas might be out early here. Offensively, the focal point will be Mikko Rantanen. They will be without stud Jason Robertson for at least this playoff series likely and that could prove to be an issue. Matt Duchene had the quietest incredible season a player could have and will be asked to continue that. Defensively, this team has depth issues. The status of Miro Heiskanen is in doubt, which leaves Thomas Harley as the guy who needs to step up even more than he already has. He’s been amazing but the right side of the depth chart is so so lacking. The PK has been okay without Miro, but they are about to play the lethal Avs PP…yikes. Jake Oettinger has the experience vs Mackenzie Blackwood but his playoff performances haven’t always been pretty. He had such a strong regular season but that could all be undone by this crazy strong Avs team.
The Avalanche are a completely different team than they were in the beginning of the season. They turned over nearly half of the entire roster during the year including both goalies at one point. The Avs have some of the best top-level talent offensively in Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, and they got deeper with the acquisitions they made this year. The loss of Rantanen has not been the issue many thought it could be. Defensively this team has huge studs in Cale and his partner Devon Toews. Toews brings a level of stability that couples well with Makar’s elite play. The depth on the backend might be a problem but it’s been quite solid this season. Mackenzie Blackwood will main the net and he had a strong season after being brought in. He really stabilized the goaltending issue the Avs had.
This is probably the most fun series to watch, as a hockey fan. This is a series between two juggernauts that will likely go the distance. It will feature nastiness and amazing skill. The loss of Jason Robertson and the Stars recent weaker play does pose some concern but their game 1 was a lot closer than the score indicated. I think we will see go the distance, even to overtime in game 7. I have Avs in 7.
Vegas Golden Knights (1st Pacific Division) vs Minnesota Wild (1st West Wildcard)
The Vegas Golden Knights took their summer to recoup and have been elite all year it feels like. They finished 6th in offense with Jack Eichel having a career regular season, for a guy who one of my favorite players due to his incredible 2-way play. He’s explosive and his IQ is elite. What a player. The scoring has been by committee yet again, that’s been the Knights way. Vegas also finished 5th in scoring D despite the drop off from aging and hurting Alex Pietroangelo. Eichel has done his part up front to help the defensive stats of the Knights and overall, the depth of D showed through at key times this season. Adin Hill has a solid enough season and is probably the beneficiary of a strong D in front of him. He has been better since the 4-Nations and he’s been a beast in the playoffs…that’s something that could be key in this series.
Minnesota started so strong this season, but they faced incredible injuries that really impacted their lethality. The injuries to Erickson Ek and Kiril Kaprizov almost played them out of the playoffs completely. Those boys are back, and the offense has really started to come back around. The Wild have been fantastic 5-on-5, which is a huge thing going into playoffs. The offense did plummet when Kaprizov is out though and he will need to carry the offense if they have a shot. Injuries on the backend really impacted the Wild this season. Brock Faber is an absolute stud back there, but he is getting tired, you can tell. The Wild will rely on their incredible goaltender Gustavsson to shut it down. He was incredible this season, but this playoff experience is very limited. He will need come out and play lights out.
The mis-match is somewhat clear for me here. The Wild may be healthier but how healthy are they truly. The Wild are finally going to be free of their cap issues but the lack of ability to roster a full lineup couples with the fact the Knights look as good as they have in years. I have Knights wrapping this up in 4.
Los Angeles Kings (2nd Pacific Division) vs Edmonton Oilers (3rd Pacific Division)
The Los Angeles Kings were strong the entire season. They ended the season as the best team defensively and it showed all the way through. The offense was a bit to be desired at times and they aren’t the highest octane. While its solid, it’s not the game-breaking offense that their 4-time opponent has. Kevin Fiala and Adrian Kempe will be asked to step up and lead the charge offensively and find ways to finish and finish often. Defensively, this team is elite. 2nd in goals against per game and a league leading expected goals against while 5 on 5. The depth down the middle is incredible, especially defensively. This D core will be asked to maintain McDavid and Draisaitl yet again. The Kings probably have their best goaltending in the last 4 years going into playoffs. Kuemper is an Oiler killer historically and finished 3rd in saves above expected.
The Edmonton Oilers had a rollercoaster of a season with players underperforming at times to the incredible number of injuries they are facing as of late. The bright side? Leon Draisaitl will likely win his 2nd Hart Trophy. He put the team on his back, though hopes to fully healthy after some injuries late. The overall offense wasn’t elite, just always has the ability to be elite. Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins took steps back but that was in line with McDavid’s step back as well. Defensively, it’s a question mark given the injury to Mattias Ekholm. The Oilers lost Broberg to the Blues and replaced him with Jake Walman, who’s been solid but facing some injuries questions as well. Darnell Nurse really improved his game but Bouchard took his own step back. He will need to step up. Overall, this D has the potential for some incredible depth but it takes being healthy. Goaltending is the biggest question mark. What Stu Skinner are we going to get. The 2nd round Skinner and this regular season Skinner, or the Skinner who outdueled Oettinger last year and almost won the Cup? Calvin Pickard was simply sensational as a back-up, but he’s just that…
This the 4th time in a row we are seeing the Oilers play the Kings in round 1. It’s been all the Oilers but this year feels different. The Oilers have had a lot of uneven play throughout and have so many question marks about their injury status. The Kings have the best team they’ve had and are healthier than ever. That alone I think will be the difference, no matter what McDavid and Draisaitl will eventually do. I think this will end the streak of the Oilers and they will get an extra bit of rest for next year. I hope I am dead wrong. Kings in 6.