NHL Stanley Cup Round 1 Preview
Welcome everyone to the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs. 82 games have passed for every NHL team, creating one of the most intriguing and exciting regular seasons that I can remember. There was drama all the way up to the final game of the season for many teams and that is all we really ask for in a regular season. Format for those uninitiated is as follows. Each division has 3 qualifying teams, and each Conference has 2 Wildcard teams consisting of the nest best in the Conference after the divisional spots have been taken. #1 in each Conference plays the #2 Wildcard Team, the other Divisional winner plays the #1 Wildcard team. #2 and #3 in each Division play each other. This year, and I know I am late by a couple days, will be electric. There are a couple potential snoozer series, but we will have probably 4-5 great teams that will be golfing before we know it. Who will raise Lord Stanley’s Cup in 2024?
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Metropolitan Division
New York Rangers (1) vs. Washington Capitals (WC 2)
The New York Rangers, your President’s Trophy winner, finished 55-23-4 to amount 114 points this season. They did not win the President’s Trophy by the margin we saw by Boston last year but was one of the most consistently great teams throughout the season. The best part is the part where Jonanthan Quick was their MVP for nearly half a season, while Igor Shesterkin was figuring out his game. He saved this team, through and through. Shesterkin is back to his normal game, and he will most certainly be a key factor to this run. On the back end, the Rangers have a solid D core that has played together for awhile now. They finished 5th lowest in goals against and 4th most in points for from their D core, impressive work. Up front, Artemi Panarin will be tasked with bringing his game from the regular season (49-71-120) into this postseason. We saw Lafreniere take a step forward this season as well. The top 6 finished 7th in goals per game average at 3.39.
The Washington Capitals barely squeaked into this postseason with just enough points and a tie breaker to boot, and a putrid -37 goal differential. This team was basically gifted a playoff spot as the final teams fighting for a spot just didn’t want to take it, I guess the Capitals were left with the short stick…so it felt. It was an ugly beginning of the season for Captain Alex Ovechkin, as he couldn’t find ways to score, as he’s inching closer to the goals record. He picked it up big time in the back half and put together yet another 30-goal season. Beyond Ovechkin, the forward group is old, slow, and just don’t provide much confidence. The backend does consist of John Carlson, but he isn’t the same guy he was in 2018. Jensen and Sandin are coming from injuries, and so this D core has a lot to be desired. The goaltending will be handled by Charlie Lindgren, brother of Rags D Ryan Lindgren. He is a 30-year-old goaltender playing his first NHL playoffs. Godspeed good sir.
This is my widest gap in terms of matchups this season. I usually don’t say that any series is a lock but given the way that both of these teams got to where they are, this is the most lopsided series by a margin. The Caps are slow, they are old, and they just don’t have the roster makeup to handle a Rangers team that has only steadily improved year over year. Rags have the goaltending, the depth, and the D core to make this a quick series. I am expecting a sweep in this series. Rangers in 4.
Carolina Hurricanes (2) vs. New York Islanders (3)
The Carolina Hurricanes started this season in trouble. They were out of the playoffs at American Thanksgiving and were picking up the pieces after Freddie Andersen was out due to a blood clotting issue. He is back and I expect he will start with this team given his playoff pedigree. 13-2-0 in his starts this season with a .932% SV. It’s a very small sample size but his play in the past is more than sufficient to prove that this is the guy. Up front, the Hurricanes did something they have never done, take a rental into the playoffs. In a crazy turn of events in Pittsburgh, the Hurricanes acquired Jake Guentzel at the deadline to hopefully balance out this unit and find needed scoring. 17 games with the club, he scored 8 goals and 17 assists. What a pickup. Sebastian Aho is the team’s leading scorer, with no surprise there. The back end is strong as ever with the underrated Jacob Slavin pair with Brent Burns. Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce on the 2nd unit. This team is built for the long haul and with Rod Brind’Amour behind the bench…expect another long run.
Quite the season for the Islanders who struggled early to figure out their game. In mid-January, Lane Lambert was fired and in came Hall of Fame netminder and total scary man Patrick Roy behind the bench. Semyon Varlamov will start between the pipes after his solid 14-8-2 season. For this team to have any success, Varlamov will need to steal probably 2 games from the Hurricanes because the offense for this Islanders team is a lot to be desired. The Islanders will have spurts of energy and they are very solid defensively, but unless they can fill the net there might be a problem. Horvat and Barzal are great hockey players, but this team lacks a finisher, with killer goalscoring instincts.
A rematch of last year’s round 1, this is one of the wider matchups we will see but I do think that the Islanders can give the Hurricanes at least some trouble. I have the luxury of seeing the 1st game before writing this and can tell you that the Islanders have the ability to put the pedal down from an in-game momentum perspective. That said, we saw that 3rd period and the Hurricanes basically said, “Hold my beer” and won the game as we all expected. Canes in 5.
Atlantic Division
Florida Panthers (1) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (WC 2)
The Florida Panthers were the Panthers of last year’s playoffs all year. Many worried, including me, that they would fall behind without the likes of D-men Ekblad and Montour out to start the year. Not only did they tread water, they were swimming with the rest of the best of the league and missed the President’s Trophy by just a few points. Goalie Bob is at his best, sporting a 36-17-4 record in his starts with a 2.37 GAA and .915 SV%. The D group is so solid and have found a way to support their goaltender quite well, will also being a huge part of the offensive game. The likes of Ekblad, Montour, OEL, and Verhaeghe are a great group of D, and nasty to boot. The forward group consists of new annual Selke finalist Barkov, the rat Matty Tkachuck himself, and new 50 goal scorer Sam Reinhart. This is a group of nasty hockey players that stand up for each other and can find ways to score in bunches.
Tampa Bay is consistently making the playoffs, despite everyone thinking every year is their last year of the open window. They keep proving us all wrong, every single time. They look very mediocre in the early part of the season, especially with losing Vasy. But find a way to turn on the switch when the games matter most. Andre Vasilevsky will take the net for the Bolts, no surprise there. I still think he’s one of the best in the league and that the goalie matchup for these teams might be the closest in any of the other series. Hart Trophy Finalist Nikita Kucherov was the catalyst for this team, he is the savior for this team. He leads his team in scoring by 54 points...and became the 5 players in history and 2nd this season to register 100 assists in a season. The thing that the Bolts have is their core is so experienced and know what it takes to win, though I wonder if they will be able to handle the Panthers speed and grinding style of hockey. We know that the Bolts are nasty as well but are they nasty enough and are they deep enough to find scoring away from Kuch?
This matchup always brings a smile to my face. I love the fireworks of this matchup because there is so much hate, so much skill, so many miserable hockey players playing against each other. The winner of this series will do well to win quickly because this series can take a lot out of you, and you have to then take on either Boston or the Leafs. Given the younger core, the speed, and the way that the Panthers play right now, they will take this series, but it will not be easy. The goalie matchup is too close for me so it will come down to other aspects. I worry about Bolts’ ability to score outside of their powerplay and so the Panthers win in 6 due to their superior 5 on 5 plays. Panthers in 6.
Boston Bruins (2) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3)
Boston was not expected to be the same team as least year after losing Bergeron and Krejci. And we were right, however they most certainly overachieved many people’s thoughts on this team. If you look at this lineup, aside from the shut down D core, this forward group is quite shallow. Aside from Pasta, Marchand, and Zach, the forward group seems a bit to be desired and I wonder if it can manage the depth that is seen elsewhere in this division. The part that has this team buzzing is the overall backend. With Lindholm and Mcavoy your top D unit, you’re in a great position to limit chances against. The goaltending situation is the most interesting as it seems like we will see a rotation of Swayman and Ulmark this season. With Swayman looking great in game 1, will the B’s actually commit to their rotation on a game-by-game basis? I just wonder how that will work down the stretch, though it is always amazing to know that you have not one but TWO top tier goalies to choose from. However, the carousel in these emotional playoffs could be too much for one of them…
Toronto Maple Leafs make the playoffs again with no worries following the 2nd half of the season. But they face the B’s…yet again. This season saw Matthews fall just 1 goal shy of 70 goals, which is absolutely incredible. Willy Nylander signed his contract and has been great, at least until recently. But we are now in the postseason and the Leafs, and the postseason has always been a problem. The Leafs have more sandpaper in the lineup with Bertuzzi and Domi in the mix which will help take on the Bs. Injuries throughout the lineup has forced the Leafs to try any bit of combinations in the lineup and stock up on the depth side. Goaltending is the biggest concern for me as they will either have Samsonov who’s been very inconsistent, or Joseph Woll, who is still in the development stage of his career. The Leafs will need their top guys to find the net, and often because I don’t know if the Leafs can rely on their D and goaltending to nurse small leads.
This series will be back and forth, I think. The Leafs are incredible at responding to bad losses in early parts of series over the course of their playoff runs. I actually think the Leafs could take a series lead at some point. However, they struggle to earn that 4th and hardest win of any series. I think that the Leafs backend will be their downfall and their stars will struggle to show up at some point, yet again. Expect an emotional and ridiculous game 7 that will see the Bruins move on and end the Leafs chances at a Cup for yet another year. Bruins in 7.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Central Division
Dallas Stars (1) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (WC 2)
The Dallas Stars are your Central Division and Western Conference winners of the regular season. The Stars took control of the division after the All-Star Weekend, going 22-8-3, even after a solid beginning of the season, if not slightly inconsistent. The Stars are built like a cap team should be, from within. The 2017 Draft for the Dallas Stars will be known as one of the most impact drafts of all time, taking the following: Jake Oettinger, Miro Heiskanen, and Jason Robertson. A pick for every part of their lineup. The team then stacked up on older veterans that know how to win hockey games, including Pavelski, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Matt Duchene. This team has incredible depth all up and down the lineup and it will be needed to take on this Vegas team. The goaltending situation with Oettinger finally figuring it out since January is a recipe for success for the Stars.
The Vegas Golden Cap Circumventers make the playoffs yet again after major injuries down the stretch. It is expected that Mark Stone (spleen laceration) will be playing Game 1 today and once again, Vegas takes advantage of the IR cap relief. They managed to take Anthony Mantha and Tomas Hertl at the deadline to bolster that already incredible depth. They have scoring all through the lineup now. The defending champs also enjoy having a very strong D core that is improved with Noah Hanifin. They can move the puck and grind you down shift after shift. The worry for me about this team is if Adin Hill will be consistent enough this time around. He hasn’t been as strong as before the halfway point due to injury recovery. Will Adin Hill manage to bring the game he had last year against this deep Stars team?
This series will need to go long if anyone in the Central expects to beat either of these teams. These are the deepest teams in the West going at it, and luckily for the rest of us, one of them is gone in 2.5 weeks. Overall, I think the depth of the Stars and the fact that they are all coming in healthy at mid-game form coupled with Oettinger buzzing, we will see the Stars take this one, but it will go so so long, down to a final goal in Game 7. Stars in 7 games.
Winnipeg Jets (2) vs. Colorado Avalanche (3)
The Winnipeg Jets came off of their playoff berth last year, signed Hellebuyck and Scheifele in the off-season and turned in such a great regular season. Sure, consistency was a problem down the stretch, but they battled for the top spot with the others for most of the season. The Jets win with their strong offense, with some expense to their defense. Though that’s allowed when you have the best goaltender in the lead. Connor Hellebuyck will win the Vezina and no one came close to him. I would not be surprised if he has Hart Trophy votes too…he was the true MVP of the season. The Jets top end forward group knows how to score and the acquisitions of Vilardi, Toffoli, and Monahan has improved the scoring depth. The defense has improved too, which helps the goaltender as well. When things are working for the Jets, they are unstoppable but when they are not, this team is really bad and that can be a team’s downfall. You need to be able to bend and not break and the Jets have been a breakable team this year.
The Avalanche are many people’s best team in the Central, and for good reason. Nathan Mackinnon put in an incredible Hart Trophy Finalist season, and someone will be upset if he doesn’t win it. The Avs boast the 6th best offense in the league, including 6th best PP. MacKinnon is able to put anyone on edge at his normal level, but this level MacKinnon is straight up scary and could be game changing. The Avs were actually even with the Jets in the shot suppression side of the ledger defensively. Injury and depth problems on the backend will balance out the offensive upside we saw, similar to the Jets situation. Alex Georgiev might be this team’s Achilles Heel, especially when comparing to what the Jets have on their end. They may need to figure out a way to outscore their defensive blips at times.
This series will be close, especially after watching that Jets win in game 1. That Jets crowd was insane and might have an impact given they have the home ice advantage. I think Hellebuyck will play better next game and shut it down a bit better than that. I actually think that the Jets are a team with something to prove, they have the goaltending, and a tad bit more depth to make this series fall into their favor. Jonathan Drouin being out on the Avs side leaves them too vulnerable for me. Jets in 6 games.
Pacific Division
Vancouver Canucks (1) vs. Nashville Predators (WC 1)
The Vancouver Canucks are back in the playoffs for the first time in 9 years. That insane fan base, to put it nicely, will be in the building doing their thing. The Vancouver Canucks started their season so strong and never really looked back for most of it. They got incredible goaltending from Demko, found scoring throughout the lineup, and the defense was strong enough to let this team thrive. Their play as of late hasn’t been quite as consistent but everything at least somewhat evens out over the course of a season. This team wasn’t the most dominant in the offensive zone analytically, but they just found ways to score at will. Quinn Hughes had a Norris Trophy season and showed he’s the current top D-man in the league both offensively and defensively. The Canucks outscored their opponents 91-54 with him on the ice. That’s impactful. This Canucks team will need Petterson to improve because his game as of late has been a problem.
Nashville came out of nowhere and was the hottest team in the NHL in the latter half of the season! They struggled early but they were so strong down the stretch and solidified their spot quite early going 16-0-2 in their best stretch this season. Impressively, the Predators finished as one of the leagues unluckiest teams in terms of finishing, which says they had possession and pressure just couldn’t find the net. Josi on the backend was incredible this season, yet again, and is such an incredible leader for this team. The depth on the backend is a little to be desired but not different than the other side by my opinion.
This is a battle of two teams who have a lot to prove. Both teams are in positions that no one expected and are playing their best hockey. The series will be fast and brutal game after game. The Canucks will take control of this game if they can get Petterson to come out of his weird shell. I also look at Demko and think he’s the superior net minder right now. That said, I think that Nashville will push this to the brink, and we will see a game 7 matchup in Vancouver, and Vancouver will take it on home ice.
Edmonton Oilers (2) vs. Los Angeles Kings (3)
The Edmonton Oilers were 31st in the league in mid-November when they fired their coach and hired 1st time NHL Coach Kris Knoblach. Many fans and pundits figured the Oilers would find a way to back, but it would take all season to get them back into the fray. An 8-game winning streak and shortly after a 16-game winning streak changed that narrative and by Christmas, the Edmonton Oilers had saved their season. The Oilers were the unluckiest team analytically early on and things really started to fix themselves when the coach was changed. The Oilers saw Connor McDavid become the 4th player in history to register 100 assists, Stu Skinner found his way as the Oilers starting goaltender with a 36-15-5 record after an atrocious start to the season. The offensive side is not a worry on the top 6 side, it’s the depth that will be looked at. The Oilers have added needed pieces to find scoring throughout the lineup including the additions of Corey Perry, Adam Henrique, and Sam Carrick. Defensively, Evan Bouchard took a massive step and solidified as a top tier D man. He and Mattias Ekholm boasted some of the best stats. The likes of Ceci on the 2nd unit does gives us concern. Goaltending and staying consistent will be essential for this Oilers team who are the best version of the Oilers that we have seen since probably 2006 if not 1990.
The LA Kings have a great start, a horrible middle, and squeak into the 3rd division spot to take on the Oilers, yet again. The offense was greatly improved with the likes of Quinton Byfield finding his game and showing us what he truly made of. The depth of center is completely determined by the play of acquired Pierre Luc Dubois, who has been very divisive this season. Who will we get in Dubois this playoff? If he pops off, then his regular season issues will be forgiven, full stop. Defensively we see Drew Doughty leading the charge, as per usual. That’s where the star depth stops, though the likes of Gavrikov and Roy do show that this team has some depth on the backend. This team will live and die in the goaltending situation which is the worst we have probably seen in recent years. Talbot had a solid season but when scoring runs dry…he won’t’ be able to save this team. The 1-3-1 system will be tested if the Oilers find ways to score.
This is the 3rd matchup in a row between these teams. The Oilers are 2-0 so far over the last series and that alone should scare the Oilers. History isn’t kind to those teams who have won twice in a row. Fundamentally, the Oilers are the superior team and have better offense, defense, and probably goaltending. They won’t win with their goalie between the pipes, but this is the best defensive Oilers team we have seen in recent years and the McDavid factor will be enough to end this series quickly, in my opinion. Oilers in 5.