2024 MLB Division Previews: NL East
Atlanta Braves
2023 - 104-58, lost NLDS to Phillies
Offseason - Traded for OF Jarred Kelenic, traded for SP Chris Sale
2024 Outlook - The Braves had one of the best lineups in baseball history last year but in the end, they fell short of their World Series goal and lost to their division rival, Phillies, for the second straight season in the NLDS. That lineup is back to terrorize opposing teams in 2024, led by the 2023 NL MVP, Ronald Acuna Jr. They have one of the best rotations, if healthy, led by Spencer Strider and Max Fried. The addition of Chris Sale is an intriguing one, it’s risky due to Sale’s recent slide in production and health issues, but the risk could be worth it if he can become anywhere close to his Cy Young form again. Atlanta is a clear elite team in the league and it will be World Series or bust for them again in 2024.
Over/Under Wins Prediction - 101.5 - Over. It may seem crazy to take the over on such a high line but that’s how good this team is. They have the talent and depth that very few teams have which makes them a MLB powerhouse.
Philadelphia Phillies
2023 - 90-72, lost NLCS to Diamondbacks
Offseason - Extended SP Aaron Nola (7 years) and SP Zach Wheeler (3 years)
2024 Outlook - The Phillies had as clear a track to make the World Series for the second straight season as they could have in 2023 but they lost Game 6 and 7 at home to Arizona and were sent home wondering what could have been. This team is built for postseason runs. Their top end of the rotation, Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler, have been secured for the future. Bryce Harper is fully healthy to start the season at first base and Trea Turner should have a bounce-back year after a rocky start to 2023. The Phillies have some of the best talent in the game and will be looking to redeem themselves after a heartbreaking exit from last year’s postseason.
Over/Under Wins Prediction - 90.5 - Over. The Phillies will no doubt have some inconsistencies during the regular season, which will most likely leave them in second once again in the division. That’s a comfort zone for this team as they have proven that all you need to do is get in and you never know what can happen.
Miami Marlins
2023 - 84-78, lost WCS to Phillies
Offseason - Signed SS Tim Anderson
2024 Outlook - The Marlins shocked everyone in 2023 by holding on to a postseason spot all season long. They were overwhelmed by the Phillies in the Wild Card round. Going into 2024, can they build on last year’s success? They certainly have some high end talent, Luis Arraez and Jazz Chisholm Jr headline the offense while Jesus Luzardo fronts a rotation full of young arms that can compete with any team. It’s not a bad team on paper but last year’s team definitely exceeded expectations and this year’s roster isn’t all that improved. They might come back to reality or maybe 2023 Manager of the Year, Skip Shoemaker, has the magic touch that will lead this team to more success.
Over/Under Wins Prediction - 78.5 - Under. I almost always underestimate the Marlins and sometimes it comes around to bite me. However, I don’t think they can repeat the success from last season so a mid-70 win season seems likely.
New York Mets
2023 - 75-87, missed postseason
Offseason - Hired Carlos Mendoza as manager, signed SP Luis Severino
2024 Outlook - Everything that could go wrong went wrong for the Mets in 2023. After a huge offseason of spending to bolster the roster, injuries and poor play on the field led to not only a losing season but the firing of both the manager and general manager. Carlos Mendoza takes over a Mets team that just recently won 100 games in 2022, so there’s still something to make of this club. They will have their All Star closer, Edwin Diaz, back from injury. Kodai Senga had a great first season in 2023 and can be a leader of the rotation. Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Starling Matre, and Jeff McNeil lead the offense looking to bounce back after a terrible season. I expect the Mets to improve from last year’s disaster but I’m not ready to push them anywhere close to a contender in the postseason.
Over/Under Wins Prediction - 82.5 - Over. I do believe the Mets won’t be pitiful this season. I’m not sure how high their ceiling is but I think they can have a winning season and bring a glimmer of hope back to this organization.
Washington Nationals
2023 - 71-91, missed postseason
Offseason - Signed OF Joey Gallo, OF Jesse Winker, OF Eddie Rosario
2024 Outlook - The Nationals are still in rebuild mode. That being said, 2023 was a decent year for this club as they improved on their win total from the previous season. It’s not time to get hopes up yet though, they are still a long ways away from winning baseball, especially in this division. It will be a season of monitoring player development. What can they get out of their young pitchers, Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore? Will Keibert Ruiz continue to improve into a cornerstone of the franchise? The Nationals will most likely be selling at the trade deadline to continue improving their roster with young talent. More losing is on its way in 2024 but hopefully some exciting play from a few players.
Over/Under Wins Prediction - 66.5 - Over. They got 71 last year, I think they can be right around that number again in 2024.