NHL Preview - Eastern Division
This is the first of four articles I will write to give my full divisional previews for upcoming NHL season. As a reminder, the NHL will be having a shortened, 56-game season with a divisional realignment that has changed the composition of the divisions. We will see a Northern (Canada) Division, Eastern Division, Central Division, and Western Division. I am starting this series with the Eastern Division. The top four teams of each division will make up the 2021 NHL Playoffs. The Eastern Division consists of the Boston Bruins, Buffalo Sabres, New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Washington Capitals. My preview will be in order of how I see the season playing out.
#1 Boston Bruins
2019-20 Season - The Boston Bruins 2019 season saw them go 44-14-12, 1st in the Atlantic, 1st in the East, 1st in the league. They were handed a playoff series loss in the second round to the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Lightning. One of the best teams on both sides of the puck, lending to well league average above goals for and below average goals against. The perfection line took a while to come fully into it in the bubble, but their regular season was phenomenal, with Pasternak leading the team with 48 goals and 95 points, Brad Marchand close behind with 28 goals and 85 points, and Patrice Bergeron almost reaching point per game status at 31 goals for 56 points. There was no lack of depth scoring either with many players, especially from defensemen, some scoring above 20 points in the shortened season.
Outlook for 2021 - Boston is one of the most well-rounded and best built teams in the league, especially given the cap. They finished in the top 10 offensively and are even stronger defensively, inking a 2.39 GA/G average which was by far the best in the league ahead of second place Dallas Stars at 2.52. PK was 3rd at 84.2%. The offense will be limited as David Pasternak and Brad Marchand underwent surgery that will keep them out some games during this season. Marchand is targeting a mid-January return and Pasternak targeting a mid-February return. Marchand will at least miss a game, but we will see how much longer. Defensively Chara is a question mark and Tory Krug was lost to FA. The team made no major additions but have lost D-man Torey Krug and Zdeno Chara’s future in the league is the big question mark.
Players to Watch – Charlie McAvoy - Zdeno Chara is currently a UFA with interest in rejoining his Bruins team but he is contemplating retirement as well at age 43. Charlie McAvoy is the future of the defense core for this team if he is not already part of the essential core of this team. He will be asked to be part of the leadership core of this team, even if he does not get a letter. Since he came into the scene, he has seen a big development on both sides of the puck. At 22, he is coming off a year which saw him achieve career-highs in assists and games played, and plus minus. He will be asked to replace the production lost in Torey Krug and probably be on the short list to take the PP spot for a team who ran the 2nd best PP in the league.
Tuukka Rask - Rask had the huge misfortune of having to leave the bubble to tend to family issues, also facing scrutiny for comments made that portrayed a lack of will and passion to play. He is entering the last season of his contract and given his abilities (both positive/negative) he will the ire of speculation. There have been rumors of the relationship between player and coach but currently, Bruce Cassidy is on board with having Rask start. Post season has been this man's kryptonite and with one of the most well-rounded teams in the NHL, he will get another chance to change that narrative.
My Prediction - With two key defensemen potentially out for good and key offensive core players are out temporarily, the Boston Bruins will be tried and tested, at least early. I question Rask on many levels, he is a hot head and can be a bit emotionally detached causing issues but when he is on, its lights out. I do not know what Rask I will be getting. The goaltending group in the regular season was the best in the league as well. This team fights adversity well though and to count them and their extremely good coach out would be foolish. You got your horse in Bergeron and the experience and the strong depth, I expect a top-3 placement for this squad, no worse.
#2 Washington Capitals
2019-20 Season – The Caps finished last season with 41-20-8 record, 1st in the Metro and 3rd in the Eastern Conference. They saw yet another first round exit to the hands of the New York Islanders and have not won a postseason since their Stanley Cup win in 2018. Offense is one of the least things the Capitals need to worry about when you have Alexander Ovechkin as your captain. He may be the best goal scorer in League history. Only the Tampa Bay Lightning scored a higher per game clip than the capitals did last season, and I am not sure we can expect tons of regression when you have defenseman John Carlson on the back-end quarterbacking with Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeni Kuznetsov, TJ Oshie, and Tom Wilson on the front end.
Outlook for 2021 - There has been a bit of turnover on the capital's back end due to injury Michael Kempny, who tore his Achilles and is pushing for a mid-April return. They still have John Carlson who is a horse on the back end both offensively and defensively and Justin Schultz will get a first crack at earning a top six spot after notching 12 points in 46 games last season. The goaltending is the most intriguing aspect of the season as Braden Holtby has signed with the Vancouver Canucks leaving the net open for Ilya Samsonov. He recorded an excellent rookie season with a 2.55 goals against average and .913 save percentage across 22 starts. He will be the future of the Washington Capitals. Again, when you have one of the greatest goal scorers of all time on your team along with the strong veteran core you are in for another great season in the regular season. The biggest question mark is how Samsonov in net will improve the consistency of goaltending for this team going forward. The injuries on the back end add some question marks but the offensive prowess of this team might be strong enough to handle the extra workload. The core is competitive, and they will be as long as they're together. Some additions made in the offseason include Justin Schultz (D) and Trevor Van Reimsdyk (D). They lost Braden Holtby to Free Agency
Players to Watch – Alexander Ovechkin - Ovi is veteran and a sight to behold every single year as he strives to beat Gretzky's goal scoring record. He sits at 706 well below the 894 record but he still has years to compete. He has changed his game since the 2018 Stanley Cup where he mines the defensive side of the game more and is becoming a more rounded well rounded hockey player later in his career. All eyes will be on him as he strives to not only continue his goal scoring efficiency but also lead his team to another Stanley Cup appearance.
John Carlson- Carlson has continued to be a horse on the back end for this team year after year and has been in the Norris contention for three years running. He's considered one of the best defensemen in the League and he does so with not only putting up very strong numbers points wise but also being a force to be reckoned with defensively as well. look to see him fight for a Norris trophy win.
My Prediction - This core has kept the Capitals competitive year after year I do expect the goaltending to be fine with the emergence of Samsonov between the pipes. The Caps were a bottom half defensive club at 5 on five last season and there are large question marks for this defensive core. I have the Capitals finishing 2nd in this division as I think they will outscore their opponents 7 out of 10 times. I do not expect them to go far in the playoffs if they cannot shore up their defense before the trade deadline.
#3 Pittsburgh Penguins
2019-20 Season – The Penguins finished the season 40-23-6, 3rd in the Metro, and 5th in the Eastern Conference. As the best team to have to play a qualifying round for the Stanley Cup playoffs, they were beaten by the Montreal Canadiens the worst team to qualify for the qualifying round. This came after one post season ago they were swept by the New York Islanders in the first round. This is becoming all too familiar for this squad by now.
Outlook for 2021 - If you have Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby, and you are GM Jim Rutherford, you are going for the Stanley Cup no matter what. The offensive side of the puck for this team has been one of the best and most consistent year after year and as long as you have Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin who find a way to produce, even when the Penguins are hit by the injury bug, that bodes well for you offensively. Last season Crosby missed 28 games with the core muscle injury that required surgery and Malkin missed 14 himself with multiple ailments and others missed for various injuries and the Penguins became one of the most injury prone teams in the 2019-2020 season. Despite that, they ranked 10th in offense with 3.2 goals per game and Crosby and Malkin remained elite producers on the ice. The defense core consists of Brian Dumoulin and Chris Letang, who are strong defensive minds and veterans in this League. They have also made some key additions that should help round out the defensive side of things. Goaltending wise the Penguins will be without Matt Murray, as Jim Rutherford traded him to the Ottawa Senators this offseason. Tristan Jarry came off an excellent breakout season and will step in as the replacement for Murray going forward. Jerry ended his season with a 2.43 goals against average and a .92 save percentage with three shutouts. They added D-man Cody Ceci and forward Kasperi Kapenen from the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Players to Watch – Tristan Jarry - Jarry will be a player to watch as he is going to take over the starting netminder position for good. Matt Murray is a two-time Stanley Cup champ and in terms of postseason Jarry has a lot to live up to. He has shown that he could do so but whether he will be able to perform in the playoffs remains to be seen.
Kasperi Kapanen – Kap has come from the Toronto Maple Leafs who faced scrutiny from his play at times and love at other times. He will be expected to bring a high level of intensity and efficiency and production when he joins the likes of Sidney Crosby on the first line. He is a shooter by trade and with the elite play making skills of his new center he may see a breakout.
#4 New York Islanders
2019-2020 Season – The Isles last year record 35-23-10 for 80 points In 68 games; 5th in the Metro in 7th in the Eastern Conference. They lost to the eventual Stanley Cup Champions in the Eastern Conference Final. While in freefall down the stretch of the regular season the COVID hiatus may have helped them. Given the rough end of the regular season. they did not expect to play much in the playoffs, but they took good care of the Florida Panthers, Capitals, and Flyers to make the Conference Final. Barry Trotz and his defensive style of coaching has forced this team to become a defensive powerhouse where they rely on scoring just enough goals but keeping most of the goals out of their own net.
Outlook for 2021 - With most of the core coming back, we should not see much of a difference in terms of the roster buildout. The team is built in a defensive first nature which does come at his at an expense for offense. I would expect the Islanders would want to improve on their offensive numbers as they only ranked 22nd with 2.78 goals per game and struggled mightily down the stretch. They will also look to improve their power play that ranked 24th. Matthew Barzal is their top offensive player and one of the most skilled players in the League and he will be looking to have a continued breakout. Barzel has had to rely more on his defensive game with Berry Trotz behind the bench but will need to find his rookie style scoring to improve the offensive side of this team. They still have Jordan Eberle an Anders Lee to find some production. Defensively this is where this team soars. Despite their struggles prior to COVID they were a huge story in the postseason and their advanced stats tell a different story sporting a top 10 defense. They also rely on Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin, the new goaltending signing to take care of the pipes. There were no major additions or subtractions this offseason, besides the signing of Ilya Sorokin as the future starting goaltender.
Player to Watch – Matthew Barzal - I picked only one player to watch for the Isles because this is a team that gets it done by committee. There is no one or two players that really will be players to watch the entire team and their ability to find scoring along with maintaining their strong defensive numbers will be key for them to find success in the season. That said, Matt Barzal will be asked to find his Scoring abilities that he once had in the past. Barzal has scored nearly twenty goals this season but has fallen off in terms of point production since his rookie year. He will need to find a new level of offense to complement his very strong defensive game and we may see him in Selke contention if he manages is to find the back of the net at nearly point per game efficiency. Since losing John Tavares, Barzal has been the guy and he will be asked to do more and more season after season.
My Prediction - This is a very boring team to watch. But they play a game that is frustrating and completely negates the offensive abilities of their opponents making them very painful to not only watch but also painful to play against. I think that Barry Trotz will look to find more offense because at the end of the day I believe their conference elimination was mainly due to lack of offense and that is expected deeper in the playoffs. I expect to see this team well above .500 and well within the playoff race. I do question their ability to score enough goals to compete in the high levels of the postseason and thus I expect a semifinal or conference final elimination once again. For the first time they will also be facing the Boston Bruins often, and in my view, steel sharpens steel and what better team to sharpen against than one of the best teams in the League.
#5 Philadelphia Flyers
2019-20 Season – Flyers ended the season with a record 41-21-7; 2nd in the Metro and 4th in Eastern Conference. They ended up losing to the New York Islanders in the second round of the playoffs. No team was hit harder by COVID as they had just seen a 9-game winning streak snapped on March 10th and they had not lost consecutive games since dropping four in a row from December 31st to January 7th. The Flyers were shooting up the Metro standings and finished one point behind the Caps and sported a superior plus 36 goal differential that was the best in the division and 3rd best in the Eastern Conference.
Outlook for 2021 - Interestingly, despite a lack of blue-chip offensive prowess, the Flyers offense clicked at one of the league's better paces ranking seventh while averaging 3.29 goals per game and getting production up and down the line up. The power play was mediocre, but their even strength offense was one of the best groups in the NHL. The team solidified the center ice position when they required Kevin Hayes from The Jets and he turned out to be an excellent 200-foot contributor that played in all situations for the flyers. Travis Konecny took his game to a new level and led his team in goals at 24 and points in 61 and Hayes chipped in 41 points of his own. Clearly if your highest score is only a 61-point scorer but you are still ranking 7th you are getting production all the way down into the lower lines. The Flyers defense was a good one and they tied Tampa Bay for 7th with 2.77 GP/; a major improvement from their previous season. At home they were the best defensive team in the NHL but on the road, they ranked 29th so their ability to defend on the road was a big question mark. A similar situation was seen on the goaltending side at home goaltending was amazing on the road it was less than stellar. They added Erik Gustafsson as a free agent in the offseason.
Players to Watch – Claude Giroux - It was only three years ago that we saw Giroux put up 102 points in a season and finished fourth in the heart trophy race. His production has declined year over year and was below point per game last year. He is considered a superstar, but he is volatile season to season; he can be among the best, but he can also slip like he did last season. He will be expected to be a top tier player if they look to move on to the later parts of the playoffs, I think that that was a major part of why they were ousted in the second round.
Carter Hart - The emergence of Carter Hart for the Philadelphia Flyers has been nothing but a revelation. Hart posted a nice 2.42 goals against average across 40 starts and 43 appearances last season, though his consistency on the road was the big question mark. He is moving along fine in his development, and he is leaning on the experience of Brian Elliott to lead him to becoming a superstar goaltender in this League.
My Prediction - The Flyers are a very good team with a little bit of bad mixed in. They have a strong core of players both skilled and smart they know how to play together. Their captain is a bit volatile and that is the largest question mark for me going forward. They do have a strong and budding goaltending tandem and that forward group is nothing to shake your head about. With the type of talent and teams ahead of them I just don't think that they'll be able to crack a top four spot in this division the division is simply too hard. I would not be surprised if they do crack a spot, but I am not counting on it.
#6 New York Rangers
2019-20 Season – Rangers went 37-28-5 For 79 points in 70 games last season. They were a COVID bubble team however were ousted by the Carolina hurricanes in the qualifying round. The offense was the story that carried the Rangers last season as they finished 5th with 3.33 goals per game, while their 22.7 playoff percentage ranked 7th. The addition of Panarin helped and he took his game to MVP level and could have easily another. That triggered a huge season by Mika Zibanejad a career year in fact where he scored 1.32 points per game ranking 7th in the league behind the likes of David Pasternak, Nathan McKinnon, and Evgeni Malkin, among others. Rangers defense had to work out some kinks as the season went along and that makes sense for a young group that is just trying to find their way in the NHL. Rangers tied for 23rd alongside the Minnesota Wild while averaging 3.14 goals against per game last season; their penalty kill was below par at 77.4%. The excitement of this team also stemmed from the three headed monster in net due to the emergence of both Igor Shesterkin and Alexander Gorgiev, that ultimately put the nail in the coffin for Henrik Lundqvist in New York. Overall, the Rangers finished 11th in goaltending and most of that came from the two younger ones which should bode well going forward.
Outlook for 2021 - Whenever you have Artemi Panarin and his MVP like season on your first line you are in for a good time. Mike Zibanejad will be expected to continue his elite producing and we also saw a career year from Ryan Strome who has struggled mightily in the past. Kaapo Kakko hasn't set the League on fire quite yet but his sophomore breakout could be in store if he finds his stride continuing to improve the front end. And then there's Alexi Lafreniere who is regarded as one of the best amateur prospects the NHL has seen since Connor McDavid. That will be a sight to behold having strong forward core. We should further inspect improvement on the defensive side though we should not expect them to blow our socks off this will be a top-heavy team.
Players to Watch – Alexis Lafreniere - Whenever you're an overwhelming first overall pick prospect in the prior draft all eyes are on you. Lafreniere will be expected to do a lot and find his stride early and help improve this team on the front end even more than it already is. When you are regarded in this light it is very hard to meet expectations though it seems like he may be capable of doing this that alone makes him a player to watch this season.
Artemi Panarin - Panarin coming off an MVP like season will be interesting to watch. The question is will he be able to bring the same level that he did this season. He is clearly capable of scoring big goals producing points at a rapid pace and being all around joy to play with on the ice and in the locker room, but now he has set a career season and will be expected to at least complement that with another strong outing this season. He will be needed if the Rangers expect to go far.
My Prediction - The addition of Alexi Lafreniere alone is going to bring lots of hype and eyes to the New York Rangers this season. They had a terrible bubble experience that led to large question marks coming into this season. However, they announced their rebuild three years ago to their fans and were very quick in improving their team. This is the team that I have high upside potential for this season and would not be surprised to see them barely make the playoffs. But my expectations are they will be on the outside looking into the postseason this season as they will need another year of seasoning to improve their shortfalls.
#7 Buffalo Sabres
2019-20 Season – Buffalo recorded a dismal season for a 30-31-8 record, for 68 points in 69 games; 6th in the Atlantic; and 13th in the Eastern Conference. They were of the four Eastern teams who missed the bubble. This team has had a rough bit of time and frustrations continue to mount. The team has high end talent on the front and back end but just cannot get it together. Jack Eichel even found his name in trade rumors which I think would have been insane. However, is sounds like he will stay but frustrations are still high. Their below average GF and above average GA is not a good recipe for success.
Outlook for 2021 - Buffalo's offseason was fairly active, and it needed to be after wasting 5 years of Jack Eichel's time in the NHL. They added a winger in Taylor Hall, past MVP winner, who was one of the biggest blue chips in the market this year. They added an older, but very capable Eric Staal, bringing solid 2nd center. And they brought in a very solid 3rd line center in Cody Eakin. Taylor Hall is there for one year but expressed interest in a long-term contract if things go well. The moves shored up needed upgrades down the middle, though they are not game breakers. That first line duo will be interesting to see. They will need to come together to improve on the 21st rank offense ranking last year. Defensively they have future superstar in Rasmus Dahlin and a very solid Rasmus Ristolainen. They ranked 22nd in defense league wide, though goaltending was the major issue ranking 23rd in GSAA. Their season will hinge on the forward group galvanizing and playing more in the offensive zone and keep it out of their own damn zone. Major additions include Taylor Hall, Eric Staal, and Cody Eakin. They saw no major subtractions.
Players to Watch – Taylor Hall - This guy is signing a one year "try me" deal with the Buffalo Sabres and could be inking long term if there is a nice fit. Hall has the ability to score and score often, though he's been trending below point per game for a couple years now. He has not had the help in the past and now he's got an elite talent in Jack Eichel to work with. All eyes will be on this duo this season.
Rasmus Dahlin - Dahlin is quietly making a huge mark on the NHL, and is starting to look way overlooked as he becomes one of the best D-men in the league. He's scored 40 points in 59 games last year, a strong improvement in points per game than his rookie season. He is definitely not the problem defensively so be sure to watch Dahlin find continued improvement and continue to build the confidence on the back end.
My Prediction - I like the depth signings and I really like the Taylor Hall signing. They have Jeff Skinner, who needs to have a rebound, Eichel and now Taylor Hall to wreak havoc on teams. They are going to be facing a Boston Bruins team now that will definitely test their ability to come together and find improvement. Looking at advanced stats they were not terrible but it’s the wins/losses that ultimately matter. If they can find a way to improve on the defensive side, get the puck out of the dangerous areas in their own end, and unleash the offensive prowess in Eichel and Taylor Hall, I could see this team make much needed strides toward the post season.
#8 New Jersey Devils
2019-20 Season – Devils had a pretty bad season with a record 28-29-12, 8th in the Metro, and 14th in the Eastern Conference. They were one of 4 Eastern conference teams who missed the Covid Bubble. Their leading scorer was Kyle Palmieri (25 goals/45 points), which is not good if your best scorer is below 50 points. The team had high expectations after drafting Jack Hughes first round and traded for PK Subban (one of my most overrated NHL players). Taylor Hall's future in NJ was unclear and perhaps determinant on how the start of the season was going to shake out.
Outlook for 2021 - Last season turned out really bad and expectations are much less this year for sure. The Devils have replaced their GM with Tom Fitzgerald and a coaching change was made as well, with Lindy Ruff taking over as the bench boss. The outlook is questionable at best and no one should expect much from this team. They added Corey Crawford and Andreas Johnsson in the offseason. They lost Corey Schneider and Sami Vatanen.
Players to Watch – PK Subban - Devils had very high expectations for PK last season and it was dismal. His personality is infectious and very positive, but his play collapsed, with some noticing his skating took a major hit. Some believe it had to do with an improper 2019 offseason training regimen. He ranked 20th in Goals Above Replacement with a $9MM contract for the year. His play will be watched very closely. I think last season has the potential to be a fluke and he will be back to at least a shadow of his prior play this year after a very long break. He can turn it around and at least bring some confidence on the back end.
Jack Hughes – Jack’s first year outing was not as expected given his draft position. However, this isn't the first time it took a player to really come into the NHL and make a difference. The difference between Juniors and the NHL is immense, much like the difference between the NHL and AHL at the professional level. You are not playing boys anymore, it’s a man's game at the professional level. But Jack is young and he is a very smart player. He can skate in this league and will begin to fit into his immense shoes. He is facing more scrutiny now that his brother has seen success but he is 19 after all, don't say bust yet.
My Prediction - I see this team failing to improve on their season, and that is not necessarily a bad thing. They lost some key players but also still have young skilled players that will be given the opportunities to grow and develop. I am looking at you Hughes and Hischier. Nico Hischier is also a high draft pick who's not quite got off the ground but is going to be asked to find a new level and breakout. He will be the starting center but will have to work to bring up his line mates. He does not have blue chip help anymore. This will be his ultimate test. I expect a less than 0.500 season from this team.
Next week we will take a look at the Central Division.