MLB Postseason Preview - Division Series
After a very wild Wild Card Series weekend, the MLB Postseason moves on to the Division Series round where, after a first round bye, the top 2 seeds from each league enter the bracket. Only one higher seeded team advanced from the Wild Card Series, which just goes to show that anything can happen in October and that my predictions mean absolutely nothing. That’s not gonna stop me from at least trying to predict which four teams advance to play in the League Championship Series. As a reminder, the Division Series is a best-of-5 so that can definitely factor into which teams keep playing and others are sent packing. Let’s do this!
American League
Houston Astros (1) vs. Seattle Mariners (5)
The Houston Astros are the team to beat in the American League. They have an elite pitching staff, led by the ageless Justin Verlander, who will win another Cy Young and has had probably the quietest sub-2 ERA season of all-time. Framber Valdez has become a second ace and it’s gonna be really difficult to score runs against this team. Offensively, Jose Altuve is having the best season since his MVP performance in 2017* (*...you all know). They also have all-stars Yordan Alverez, Kyle Tucker along with Alex Bregman to round up a solid big 4 in the lineup. The rest of the offense is prone to be streaky. But the Astros have a ton of October experience and there’s no reason to doubt this team making another deep run.
The Seattle Mariners stunned Toronto in game 2 of the Wild Card Series, coming back from a 7-run deficit to win 10-9 and send Blue Jays fans home very, very sad. It seems like a team of destiny with all the amazing moments they have had lately and Seattle will be rewarded with a home postseason game for the first time in 21 years. It’s gonna be very tough to beat the top seeded Astros. It’s all going to come down to pitching. The Mariners staff has shown glimpses of brilliance, like the performance Luis Castillo had in game 1. If they can pitch that well against the Astros, they have a shot. The Mariners were 7-12 against the Astros during the regular season but most of those games were very close. If they can somehow beat Verlander in game 1, this could get very interesting.
I would love to see any team beat the Astros. October has a tendency to bring the best out of some teams and the worst out of others. Some call it magic, or mojo, or destiny…whatever it is, the Mariners might have it. But the Astros are a much, much better team than the Blue Jays. My prediction is that the Astros win this series in four games.
New York Yankees (2) vs. Cleveland Guardians (3)
The New York Yankees had quite a rollercoaster of a season. They started off so hot, everyone had flashbacks of the dominant Yankee teams of the late 90s. And although they won 99 games, some would say the underachieved. Speaking of 99, Aaron Judge became the main headline of the team with his chase of the American League home run record, which he did get on the second to last game of the season with this 62nd home run. He is the heart and soul of this team. I am very curious to see how much of a toll that home run record took on him during this series. If Judge isn’t locked in, this team is gonna be in trouble. On the pitching side, New York did not have a great second half of the season due to injuries and poor performance. However, they do have Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, and Nestor Cortes. It’s not the best in the league but it can definitely give teams trouble.
The Cleveland Guardians showed off their pitching dominance against the Rays in the Wild Card Series on their way to a 2-0 series sweep. They only have up 1 run in the two games and have proven it will be very difficult to score runs against their pitching staff. They got the big hits when they needed to but they will need much more consistent offense against the Yankees. On paper, the Guardians pitching staff can outperform the Yankees staff in a short series.
This is a very intriguing series. I feel like the Yankees have lost their identity during the second half of the season. The Guardians are playing the best baseball they have all season. This has the makings of an upset. I’m gonna take the Guardians to win this series in 5 games.
National League
Los Angeles Dodgers (1) vs. San Diego Padres (5)
The Los Angeles Dodgers won 111 games, scored more runs than any other team, and have the best team ERA (2.80) in baseball. Their +334 run differential was one of the best in MLB history. Blah, blah, blah. The Dodgers have been here before. They have been hands down the best regular season team over the past 6 years. Although 2022 has been incredible, even for LA’s standards, nothing will matter unless they win a World Series. They have everything they need. The lineup is led by the big 3 of Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Freddie Freeman. The rotation is led by Clayton Kershaw, Julio Urias, Tyler Anderson, and Tony Gonsolin. They get a Division Series matchup against their division foe from the south in the Padres. The only thing stopping the Dodgers from moving on is themselves.
The San Diego Padres came to play against the Mets. They beat Max Scherzer in game one and Joe Musgrove had a dominant performance in a winner-take-all game 3. The offense that I trash talked in the last preview, shut me up. Multiple players and big hits that led them to this division series. The storyline here is the Padres trying to slay the dragon up north in the Dodgers. A lot has been said about how much LA has bullied San Diego over the last few seasons. In 2022, they went 5-14 against the Dodgers and got outscored by 64 runs. The last time these teams met in the postseason was in 2020, the Padres got swept and Dodgers went on to win the World Series. This Padres team is better and they are coming off a big upset. It will take a team effort to slay the dragon but it can be done.
Will history repeat itself and the dominance of LA over SD continue? I think it will be a very close and entertaining series. We can talk all we want about regular season numbers but when it comes to October, it’s about who is playing hot at the right time. The Padres have the pitching to match and the offense seems to have found a spark. The battle of Southern California will go the distance but the dragon will live. Dodgers in 5.
Atlanta Braves (2) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (6)
The Atlanta Braves are looking better than ever heading into this Division Series as they look to defend their 2021 World Series title. They once again overcame a slow start and took the division crown from the Mets in the last week of the season. They have a ton of depth on the pitching staff and lineup. They have an identity and play like a team should. They also have Ronald Acuna Jr. back for this October run which is huge. It’s hard for me to find any reason they won’t advance to the NLCS.
The Philadelphia Phillies shocked the baseball world and swept the St. Louis Cardinals out of the postseason. After a huge, 9th inning comeback in game 1, they shutout the Cardinals in game 2. I said last preview that the Phillies have the potential to be a dark horse winner this October and they have definitely shown that so far. The pitching was great for them and is why they find themselves in this matchup with the Braves. With all that being said, Atlanta is going to be a much more difficult team to take down. The Phillies will need more of that great pitching and the offense has to get big hit, after big hit in order to move on. In the short series, it’s not out of the question but I’m gonna have to doubt the Phills once again.
The Phillies proved why an expanded postseason can make for exciting baseball in October. I think the Atlanta Braves are in as good of a position to repeat as any team has been in recent years. I honestly want to say the Braves will sweep but I’m going to give the Phillies some respect here. Braves in 4.