NFL Playoff Preview - Conference Championship
(1) Green Bay Packers vs (5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1/24, 12:05 PM
Offense: The Packers offense showed no rust after a BYE last week. They came out and absolutely dominated from the get-go. They scored in every single quarter on their way to a 32-18 victory over the #1 ranked Los Angeles Rams defense. The Packers offense recorded 484 yards – 296 yards through the air and 188 on the ground. Just a quick reference – The Los Angeles Rams allowed an average of 281 yards to opponents during the regular season. Aaron Rodgers broke that average on his own. Speaking of Rodgers, there is no doubt in my mind that he wins MVP this year and his performance this last Sunday completely backs that up. He showed dominance and control over all facets of the game. He was able to draw multiple penalties (12 men on the field, drawing defensive line offsides, etc.) on the defense all game long due to his high football IQ. Rodgers finished the game going 23/36 for 296 yards and 2 touchdowns while adding a rushing touchdown as well. Everybody knows how good and explosive RB Aaron Jones is (he will command a large contract this offseason) but after the game against the Rams, people know about the other 2 Packer running backs as well. For the first time all season, all 3 running backs had a considerable workload. The first running back off the bench was rookie AJ “Quadzilla” Dillon. He is a big bodied running back that has a special blend of quickness, elusiveness and brute force. Before leaving the game due to a quad injury, he recorded 27 yards on 6 carries. RB Jamal Williams has been on the Packers for a while and was always viewed as RB2 but recently showed that he can handled a high workload in a playoff game as he had 65 yards on 12 carries. Last but definitely not least is Aaron Jones. He was extremely explosive and found holes with ease as he came just 1 yard short of 100 (99) on 14 carries and also ran in a touchdown. On the receiving side of the ball, the Packers saw a number of wide receivers step up as WR Davante Adams was “shadowed” by Jalen Ramsey. WR Alan Lazard, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS) and TE Robert Tonyan all had 4 receptions. Lazard had 8 targets and recorded 96 yards and a touchdown. MVS also had 8 targets and recorded 33 yards and Tonyan was targeted 4 times for 60 yards. Although Adams was “shadowed” all game, he still had 9 receptions on 10 targets for 66 yards and a touchdown. Is he unguardable? I think so. He is definitely in the conversation for best WR in the league.
The Buccaneers offense on the other hand did just enough to get the win against the Saints. If Drew Brees didn’t throw those 3 interceptions, would we be talking about a different team right now? Possibly. But the point I am trying to make is that the Buccaneers’ star-studded offense did not command the game or even ensure the win. They just did enough and hoped that their defense stepped up or that Drew Brees made a mistake (both of which happened). They only ran 2 plays in Saints territory in the first quarter. I don’t know if that will be enough against the high powered Green Bay Packers though. Let’s get into the game against the New Orleans Saints. The Buccaneers put up 316 yards -189 through the air and 127 on the ground on their way to a 30-20 win. They welcomed back RB Ronald Jones as his explosive running style was a welcomed sight to Bucs fans. He was the RB2 in this matchup and finished the day with 62 yards on 13 carries. Starting RB Leonard Fournette continued to look good as he handled 17 carries for 63 yards and also added 5 receptions on 6 targets for 44 yards and a receiving touchdown. QB Tom Brady and the Bucs’ wide receivers struggled this game and the stat line shows it. Brady finished the game going 18/33 for 199 yards and 2 touchdowns. He missed his receivers all night and also threw into double or triple coverage. The receivers struggled to gain separation and even ran extremely lazy routes (looking at you Chris Godwin). Of the 199 passing yards, the wide receivers only accounted for 91 of them. TE Cameron Brate led the Bucs pass catchers with 50 yards on 4 receptions, RB Fournette came in second with 44 yards and WR Chris Godwin came in third with 34 yards on 4 receptions. He also dropped a touchdown reception. The wide receivers really need to step up if they want to keep up with the Packers.
Advantage – Green Bay Packers
Defense: The Packers defense played surprisingly well against the Rams. They allowed just 244 yards. The defensive line came out with their hair on fire and played some high intensity football. The D Line basically commanded the line of scrimmage all game long. They finished with 4 sacks for a total of 26 yards lost. In addition to that, Rashan Gary and Za’Darius Smith each had 7 pressures on Goff while Gary hurried him 4 times and Smith hurried him 6 times. This defense also limited Rams’ RB Cam Akers to just 90 yards rushing after he ran for 131 yards the week before. This great defensive effort was led by rookie LB Krys Barnes with 10 tackles. CB Jaire Alexander continued to show why he is the best CB in the league by shutting down the Rams’ WR and only allowing 1 reception for -3 yards.
The Buccaneers defense did well containing a typically explosive and high scoring Saints’ offense. They held the Saints to just 294 yards and star WR Michael Thomas to 0 catches. They also recorded 3 interceptions and a forced fumble. Full disclosure, only 1 one of those interceptions was due to great defensive play. 1 interception was due to a tipped pass because the receiver couldn’t catch it and the other interception was due to a miscommunication where Alvin Kamara ran the wrong route. There were 3 standout performers in this game. The elite LB tandem of Devin White and Lavonte David was finally back together and absolutely wreaked havoc on the Saints. White finished the game with 11 tackles, 1 interception and a fumble return. He was also targeted 5 times but only allowed 3 catches for 24 yards. David finished the day with 7 tackles. The last standout performer was CB Sean Murphy-Bunting. He was all over the field and recorded 5 tackles and an interception. He was also targeted 7 times but only allowed 5 receptions for a total of 4 yards. Drew Brees passer rating was 34.5 when targeting him. He is slowly turning to a lockdown cornerback.
Advantage – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Special Teams: The Packers’ longtime kicker, Mason Crosby was perfect on the day much like he has been all year. He nailed both field goal attempts with a long of 39 yards and also made both extra point attempts. Punter JK Scott also had a good day as he punted 2 times that averaged 39 yards and downed 1 punt inside the 20. Their return game struggled a little bit like it has all season. Malik Taylor returned 2 kickoffs averaging 21.5 yards and Tavon Austin returned 2 punts for an average of 8.5 yards.
Ryan Succop, the Buccaneers’ kicker also had a perfect day. He went 3-3 on field goals with a long of 37 yards and made all 3 extra points. Punter Bradley Pinion had a great punting day as he had 4 punts that averaged 45.8 yards and downed 2 of them in the 20 yard line. The Bucs did not return a kickoff but Jaydon Mickens did return a punt for 13 yards.
Advantage – Green Bay Packers
Prediction: Green Bay Packers – 31, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 28
(1) Kansas City Chiefs vs (2) Buffalo Bills
1/24, 3:40 PM
Offense: The success of this Chiefs offense lies solely on Patrick Mahomes’ shoulders. Well actually, it really depends on his head but that’s besides the point. Mahomes was having a great, Mahomes like game before he got taken out of the game with a concussion in the 3rd quarter. He finished the day going 21/30 for 255 yards and a passing touchdown. He also added 3 carries for 14 yards and a rushing touchdown. There is a chance that Mahomes does not clear concussion protocol and is ruled out for the game against the Bills. If that is the case, Chad Henne will be the Chiefs’ quarterback. I’m not saying that Henne is bad but he is just not Mahomes. Henne came into the game and played well enough to secure the win. He finished 6/8 for 66 yards and an interception. He did come in clutch, however, as he completed a short pass to WR Tyreek Hill on a 4th and 1 to seal the game. Henne has been in the league since 2008 and has 13,208 passing yard under his belt but has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns in his career (60 TD: 63 INT). If the Chiefs want a chance at this game, Henne needs to be able to process the defense quickly and not make mistakes. Even if Mahomes is healthy enough to play, I think that Andy Reid will elect to employ a heavy run game plan to protect Mahomes or to simplify things for Henne. RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) was out with an ankle injury but is questionable for the game against the Bills. In his absence, Darrel Williams started and had 13 carries for 78 yards while Le’Veon Bell only had 2 carries for 6 yards. WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce both had 8 receptions on 10 targets but Hill finished with 110 yards and Kelce finished with 109. Kelce did however make up that 1 yard difference with a touchdown. If Mahomes plays, I think this game will be an offensive shootout and both Hill and Kelce will have monster days receiving.
What more can I say about this Bills offense than I already have? The pairing of QB Josh Allen and WR Stefon Diggs is legendary. Those two seem unstoppable together. Allen did not finish the game with hugely robust number that we are used to but take into account the defense he faced and the time of possession. The Ravens defense is elite through and through and they also possessed the ball for 11 more minutes than the Bills did. Allen simply did not have the time or opportunities to produce those same numbers but did extremely well with the opportunities he did have. Allen finished the day going 23/37 for 206 yards and 1 touchdown. WR Stefon Diggs had another great game as he finished with 8 receptions on 11 targets for 106 yards and 1 touchdown. He also had some help with John Brown. Yes, he is finally healthy and had 8 receptions on 11 targets as well but only had 62 yards. The one concerning thing about this Bills’ offense is the lack of the running game. RB Devin Singletary only had 7 carries for 25 yards. The Bills as a whole finished the game with 32 total rushing yards. I have said this before, they will need to figure out a running game if they want to keep their defense fresh and off the field.
Advantage – Kansas City Chiefs (If Mahomes is healthy)
Defense: The Chiefs’ defense played well enough to contain one of the league’s best rushing attacks to just 112 yards. They held the Browns to 308 yards total. This defense was led by S Tyrann Mathieu who had 7 tackles and only allowed 4 receptions on 6 targets for a grand total of -5 yards. On top of all that, he had 1 interceptions. Long story short, the Honeybadger was all over the field and played his best ball when it mattered the most. CB Bashaud Breeland had 6 tackles on the day but also allowed 5 receptions on 6 targets for 46 yards. He and Mathieu need to work together and in tandem in order to contain the great Stefon Diggs. On the defensive line, DR Frank Clark did well to contain the edge while DT Chris Jones provided 2 pressures on Baker Mayfield. Bills’ QB Josh Allen has great rushing ability so the defensive line’s ability to contain the edge will be important for stopping Allen. On the day, the Chiefs finished with 1 sack.
The Bills’ aggressive defense kept the incredible rushing ability to Lamar Jackson in check all game long. Jackson finished the game with 9 rushing attempts for 34 yards. The Bills did allow the Ravens to have a total of 340 yards on the but held them to just 3 points (stat that matters the most). I mentioned in the previous article how this aggressive defense will have to hit the hole hard and fast to get to Lamar Jackson on blitzes and they did just that. They finished the day with 4 sacks. The biggest play of the game however was CB Taron Johnson’s pick 6 in the endzone (101 yards). This defense was led by LB Tremaine Edmunds and his 9 tackles and 2 pressures. He also only allowed 2 catches on 5 targets. DE Jerry Hughes also had a big game as he provided 6 pressures on Jackson and sacked him 2 times. This defensive line will have to play lights out once again and provide pressure against Mahomes/Henne to get this offense off the field fast.
Advantage – Buffalo Bills
Special Teams: Chiefs’ K Harrison Butker went 3-4 on field goals with a long of 50 yards. Fun fact, the one he missed was at the same distance as an extra point. He went on to miss an extra point as well as he went 1-2. The Chiefs did not punt. Mecole Hardman did have 1 punt return and he retuned that for 8 yards.
The Bills’ K Tyler Bass struggled this game going 1-3 on field goals but nailed the 28 yard attempt. He went 2-2 on extra point attempts. P Corey Bojorquez had 4 punts that averaged 36.8 yards while 2 of them were downed inside the 20. Andre Roberts returned 1 kickoff for 26 yards and 1 punt for 8 yards.
Advantage – Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs – 42, Buffalo Bills – 38