NFL Playoff Preview - Divisional Round
(1) Green Bay Packers vs (6) Los Angeles Rams
1/16, 1:35 PM
Offense: The second-year pairing of head coach Matt LaFleur and future Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers was nothing short of spectacular. This offseason, rumors were circling about the growing divide between LaFleur and Rodgers especially after the Packers drafted QB Jordan Love in the first round of the 2020 draft. Those rumors were quickly put to rest as the Packers went 13-3 on the year and did not lose their first game until week 6 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Those rumors must have lit a fire under Rodgers as he went on to have a monster season and is currently the favorite to win MVP. Rodgers finished the regular season with 4,299 yards passing with 70.7% completion and led the league with 48 passing touchdowns along with 5 interceptions. The majority of those passing touchdowns were thrown to WR Davante Adams who caught 18 of them (led the league) while only playing in 14 games. Adams also added 1,347 yards on 115 receptions. The Packers have a really good running game too as they are ranked 8th in the league averaging 132.4 rush yards per game. That run game is led by RB Aaron Jones who was amassed the 4th highest amount of rush yards in the league with 1,104 yards to go along with 9 touchdowns. In addition to all of this, the Packers may have found a hidden gem in TE Robert Tonyan or as I like to call him, “George Kittle V2.” Tonyan came out of nowhere and tied Travis Kelce for the league led of TE touchdowns with 11. On the season, the Packers were 5th in the NFL in yards per game (389) but were 1st in points scored (31.8).
The Rams won against the Seahawks in the wildcard round in a game where there was a heavily (and I mean HEAVY) reliance on the run game. RB Cam Akers ran for 1 touchdown and 131 yards on 28 carries. The Rams started the game with John Wolford at QB but left the game and went to the hospital after a gnarly hit from S Jamal Adams in the first quarter. Jared Goff entered the game fresh off a thumb surgery 12 days prior and it showed. Goff was wildly inaccurate all game. He finished the game going 9/19 for 155 yards and 1 passing touchdown thanks to his wide receivers making plays on the ball. WR Cooper Kupp and WR Robert Woods both had 4 receptions each but none of those receptions were easy. They needed to attack the ball or run back to where it was thrown and they did a damn good job of making plays when they needed to be made. Judging this Rams offense off their wildcard win is tough. They had a different game plan because they thought they were going with Wolford at QB but that all changed when he got injured. I expect Goff to play better with another week to rest his thumb and with the game plan tailored to his strengths.
Advantage – Green Bay Packers
Defense: The Packers’ defense is top 10 in the NFL in yards allowed per game (334) but are 13th in points allowed per game (23.1). Their strength lies in their pass defense. They allow the 7th least amount of yards per game with 221.2. They do not have a defensive player that has more than 83 tackles on the year but they make tackles when they need to. This unit is led by CB Jaire Alexander who has 51 tackles, 1 interception and is ranked as the #1 CB in the NFL by PFF. S Darnell Savage leads the team with 4 interceptions but also added 75 tackles. On the defensive line, the Smith “brothers,” Za’Darius and Preston (not actually related) have 12.5 sacks and 4 sacks respectively. On the season, the Packers have 42 sacks and 11 interceptions.
The Rams showed why they are the best defense in the league in the win against the Seahawks. They were absolutely dominant. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson was held to 174 yards passing and was picked off once for a touchdown. Honestly, he should have had more interceptions but the Rams dropped 3 or 4 of them. The Seahawks’ running backs were held to 82 yards on the game. DT Aaron Donald’s status for the game against the Packers is in question after he left the wild card game with a rib injury but was a game wreaker when he was in. He had 2 sacks in the first quarter alone. They set the tone early with their defense holding the Seahawks to a total of 26 yards in the first quarter. On the day, the Rams had 5 sacks against the Seahawks.
Advantage – Los Angeles Rams
Special Teams: The Packers longtime K Mason Crosby has been perfect on the year with field goals going 16-16 and even has a long of 57 yards. In terms of extra points, he has gone 59-63 (93.7%). P JK Scott has only punted 46 times for a total of 2,096 yards and had 15 punts downed inside the 20 yard line. The Packers employ a number of different returners but average 18.9 yards per kick return and 4.8 yards per punt return.
The Rams K Matt Gay was perfect in the wild game going 3-3 on field goals with a long of 40 yards. He was also perfect with extra points, going 3-3 as well. P Johnny Hekker punted 7 times for an average of 45.3 yards with no punts being downed inside the 20. Return man Nsimba Webster returned 2 kicks for an average of 31 yards and returned 1 punt for 9 yards.
Advantage – Los Angeles Rams
Prediction: Green Bay Packers - 28, Los Angeles Rams – 24
(2) New Orleans Saints vs (5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1/17, 3:40 PM
Offense: The Saints’ offense did exactly what it expected to against the Bears. The Saints controlled the ball and the clock all game with a time of possession of 38:58. Drew Brees looked like he was playing backyard football and just slinging it left and right with ease. He finished the game with a stat line of 28/39 for 265 yards and 2 touchdowns. At 41 years old, Brees may not be the most athletic QB around but he certainly has a high football IQ and great decision-making skills that are apparent during playoff games. The guy simply does not make mistakes and is cool under pressure. Speaking of pressure, the Bears didn’t really have any against Brees because the Saints’ offensive line blocked extremely well and only gave up 1 sack all day. As I mentioned last week, this was the healthiest the Saints’ offense has been all season. RB Alvin Kamara had his usual explosive game and ended up with 23 carries for 99 yards and 1 touchdown while also adding 2 receptions for 17 yards. WR Michael Thomas scored his FIRST TOUCHDOWN OF THE SEASON. Yes, you read that right. His first touchdown of the season. As he continues to ramp up to game shape and speed, look for him to regain the same form that led him to the receiving title in 2019. Outside of that storyline, the next biggest surprise was the emergence of WR/Return man, Deonte Harris. He came out of nowhere and was everywhere during this game. He was targeted 7 times and caught all 7 targets for 83 yards (which led the Saints.)
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers offense showed how the 2nd overall defense was no match for their superstar led offense. The Bucs put up a crazy high, 507 yards against a defense and only gave up an average of 304 during the season. Brady looked like he was on fire and that all started on the first drive when he only had 1 incompletion and marched the offense down 70 yards before opting for a field goal. Brady’s stat line was 22/40 for 381 yards and 2 touchdowns. The line should have been better but WR Chris Godwin had multiple drops on the day. Speaking of receivers, WR Mike Evans, who was listed as questionable with a knee injury prior to the game, showed no signs of being hampered by the injury as he went for 6 receptions on 10 targets for 119 yards. The aforementioned WR Godwin finished the day with 5 receptions on 12 targets for 79 yards and 1 touchdown while Antonio Brown rounded out the wide receiving crops with 2 catches on 3 targets for 49 yards and 1 touchdown. RB Ronald Jones was a late, game time scratch due to injury but former All Pro RB Leornard Fournette stepped in and finished the day with 19 carries for 93 yards and 1 touchdown. He also added 4 receptions for 49 yards. Here’s scary note for Saints fans – Fournette looks like he is playing at the All Pro level so good luck trying to stop a combination of Ronald Jones and Fournette.
Advantage – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Defense: The Saints were missing standout DE Trey Hendrickson this last game and it made a huge difference. The Saints’ defense was only able to get 1 sack on Mitch Trubisky. Hendrickson accounted for 13.5 sacks during the regular season so hopefully he gets back from his neck injury soon. Other than that, the Saints’ defense played really well. They held Chicago to 9 points and 239 total yards of offense. BUT you have to remember that they were playing Mitch Trubisky so it’s really hard to figure out if this defensive dominance would translate against an actually competent playoff team. This unit was led by S CJ Gardener-Johnson who was all over the field and recorded 8 tackles. CB Janoris Jenkins had 5 tackles and defended 1 pass but was often beat by Allen Robinson II. The Saints need to figure out how to put pressure on Brady if they want to win this game.
The Buccaneers’ defense looked like they were just going through the motions against the Football Team. There was no passion or sense of urgency all game long. I understand that they are going up against the 2nd worst offense in the league WITH a back up quarterback but it’s the playoffs and everyone else steps up their game so you never know. This defensive unit was almost the reason for a huge upset. They allowed back up QB Taylor Heinicke to look like a future Hall of Famer out there. This Bucs’ defense only allowed 327 yards per game during the regular season but let Heinicke throw for 306 yards and a touchdown! As a whole, the Football team that averaged 317 yards per game during season, recorded 375 yards! The Bucs’ defensive line, however, was its usual dominant self containing the WFT run game to just 86 yards but often struggled to contain the edge which led to Heinicke running the ball in for a touchdown. Some good news for the Bucs’ defense is that they get LB Devin White back from the COVID list this week. He is arguably the best defensive player the Bucs’ have. The Bucs’ defense needs to play with more intensity if they want to pressure Brees into mistakes.
Advantage – New Orleans Saints
Special Teams: The Saints’ K Will Lutz only kicked 1 field goal and missed from 50 yards. He was a perfect 3-3 on extra points however. P Thomas Morstead punted 3 times for a total of 106 yards and downed 2 of them inside the 20. Return man, Deonte Harris returned 3 punts for an average of 7.3 yards.
The Buccaneers’ K Ryan Succop was a perfect 4-4 with a long of 38 for field goals and was 1-2 on extra points. P Bradly Pinion punted 3 times for 127 yards and downed 2 of them inside the 20. Return man, Jaydon Mickens returned 2 kickoffs for an average of 13 yards and 2 punts for an average of 8 yards.
Advantage – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 41, New Orleans Saints – 38
(1) Kansas City Chiefs vs (6) Cleveland Browns
1/17, 12:05 PM
Offense: The Chiefs have the best offense in the NFL. Put them up against any other offense in the league and they will outscore and outgain that other offense 9/10 times. Head Coach Andy Reid (no relation to Co-Host Tradon) is an offensive mastermind/mad scientist who comes up with the craziest plays and route combinations paired with an absurd amount of pre-snap movement designed to cause confusion for the defense. Reid will mess with a defense too. He will run one of the most intricate plays known to man one play but will come back and run a simple “All Go” the very next play which leaves defenses questioning if all they have ever know about defense is a lie. Reid has always been a great coach and play caller but has not always had the personnel to run the offense the way he likes but now he does. He has the best (and highest paid) QB in the NFL with Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes only played in 15 games this season but still came in at 2nd highest for pass yards in the league with 4,470. He also threw 38 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions. The Chiefs’ also have the fastest and most explosive WR in the league with the “Cheetah” Tyreek Hill. This speedster had 87 receptions for 1,276 yards and 15 touchdowns. Coming in at TE is the best TE the NFL has to offer in Travis Kelce. Kelce had 105 receptions for 1,416 yards and 11 touchdowns on the year. His 1,416 receiving yards came in at 2nd the NFL (Stefon Diggs at #1 with 1,535 yards) as a TIGHT END. That is unheard of. Rounding out the offense are the running backs. The Chiefs employ 2 running backs. The first is Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) who is extremely elusive and who’s low center of gravity makes him hard to tackle. CEH only played in 13 games this season but racked up 803 yards and 4 rushing touchdowns while adding 36 receptions for 297 yards through the air. The other running back is former All Pro, Le’Veon Bell who appeared in 9 games with the Chiefs and tallied 254 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Chiefs’ offense is simply unstoppable.
The Browns surprised a lot of people with their win over the Steelers and the fact that they did it without their head coach/offensive play caller makes it that much more impressive. The Browns went up against a top 3 defense in the NFL and just dominated them. On the season, the Steelers’ defense only allowed 305 yards per game but Baker Mayfield led the Browns to 390 yards. Mayfield played really well as he went 21/34 for 263 yards and 3 touchdowns. He went well above the “game manager” title and showed that he deserves to be in the playoffs. That is not to say he did not have support though. The Browns did work on the ground too. RB Nick Chubb had 18 carries for 76 yards while RB Kareem Hunt had 8 carries for 48 yards and 2 touchdowns. The offensive line was in sync all night long and opened holes so big that even Tyler (our least athletic Co-Host) could run through them. On the receiving side, Jarvis Landry continued momentous hot streak with 5 receptions on 8 targets for 92 yards and 1 touchdown. TE Austin Hooper finally showed why he was worth the big offseason paycheck with 7 receptions on 11 targets for 46 yards and 1 touchdown. Lastly, the biggest surprise was RB Nick Chubb’s involvement in the pass game. He caught 4 receptions on 4 targets for 69 yards and 1 touchdown. If the Browns continue to use Chubb in the pass game, they could be a hard team to defend.
Advantage – Kansas City Chiefs
Defense: The Chiefs’ defense is nothing to write home about. During the regular season, they were smack dab in the middle of the league (#16) at yards allowed per game with 358.3. There is only one other playoff team who’s defense allowed more yards per game during the regular season and that is… the Cleveland Browns with 358.4 yards allowed per game. In terms of points allowed per game, the Chief did a little better. They were ranked 11th in the NFL allowing 22.6 points per game. The thing about the Chiefs’ defense is that they make the plays when they matter the most. In terms of clutch defensive play, the Chiefs are among the best in the league. This defensive unit is led by S Tyrann “Honeybadger” Mathieu, who tallied 62 total tackles but also added 6 interceptions and 9 pass deflections, and DT Chris Jones, who racked up 36 tackles with 7.5 sacks. On the season, the Chiefs had 32 sacks and 16 interceptions.
The Browns played okay defense against the Steelers. Not great defense, but not terrible either. If you looked at the stats, you may think I’m crazy for saying what I just said because after all, they had 4 interceptions and a defensive touchdown. But hear me out. The defensive touchdown was off a bad snap by Steeler’s C Maurkice Pouncey. The ball was snapped too high and went over Big Ben’s head and the Browns just got to the ball faster than he could. Of the 4 interceptions, only 1 was because of stellar defensive play. The other 3 interceptions were misthrows by Ben that went directly to the defensive player. The big looming stat about this defense is the fact that they allowed 553 yards this game. That simply cannot happen again if the Browns want to win. That being said, the Browns did have a couple of guys step up and play well. CB MJ Stewart JR had 10 tackles, 1 interception and even had 1 tackle for loss and LB Sione Takitaki made some big plays that turned into 3 tackles and 1 interception.
Advantage – Kansas City Chiefs
Special Teams: Kicking for the Chiefs was kind of all over the place. K Harrison Butker kicked field goals well during the season going 25-27 (92.6%) and even had a long of 58 yards but struggled with extra points, going 48-54 (88.9%). Rookie P Tommy Townsend did well this season kicking 52 punts for an average of 45 yards and even downed 20 punts inside the 20. The Chiefs have a number of return men for kickoffs and as a group, they average 25.8 yards per return and have 1 touchdown courtesy of Bryon Pringle. On the punt return side, they rely primarily on Mecole Hardman who has returned 25 punts for an average of 7 yards and even has 1 touchdown return.
The Browns played spectacularly on special teams against the Steelers. K Cody Parkey was surprisingly perfect on the day going 2-2 on field goals and 6-6 on extra points. P Jamie Gillan punted 5 times for an average of 39.6 yards and downed 2 inside the 20. Kick return man, D’Ernest Johnson had 3 returns for an average of 27.7 yards and Donovan Peoples-Jones returned 1 punt for 8 yards.
Advantage – Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs – 34, Cleveland Browns – 17
(2) Buffalo Bills vs (5) Baltimore Ravens
1/16, 5:15 PM
Offense: The Bills offense played extremely well in the win over the Colts. The offensive unit racked up 397 yards and was explosive all the way through. QB Josh Allen played mistake free football as he threw for 324 yards and 2 touchdowns while completing 26 of 35 passes. WR Stefon Diggs was the main recipient of those passes as he went for 6 receptions on 9 targets for 128 yards and 1 touchdown. WR Gabriel Davis stepped up big and was a huge surprise this game. He had 4 catches on 4 targets for 85 yards. WR Cole Beasely played well too. He ended the day with 7 receptions on 7 targets for 57 yards. Both Beasely and Diggs came into this matchup with the questionable tag due to injury. Their health status going into the game against Baltimore is something to monitor. My main concern of this offense is its inability to run the ball. The running back position on had 42 yards on 10 carries. Josh Allen had 54 yards rushing but those were from off-schedule, broken down plays in which Allen made something out of nothing. When there is intention to run the ball, the Bills can’t do it. There was an 8 minute differential in time of possession this game as the Colts held the ball for 34 minutes while the Bills held the ball for 26 minutes. As they continue through the playoffs, will they be able to maintain leads if they cannot run the ball and burn some time off the clock?
The Ravens had a great offensive day against the Titans. They had a 165 passing yards and 236 rushing yards for a total of 401 yards. QB Lamar Jackson showed that he could throw the ball when he needed too. He started off the day with inaccurate throw that eventually led to an interception but began to heat up as the day went on. He finished the game going 17/24 for 179 yards passing and 1 interception. He did however, show his importance to the ground game as he had 16 carries for 136 yards and a touchdown. Rookie RB JK Dobbins also added a rushing touchdown and 43 yards on 9 carries. Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is alive and made an impact! He showed that he is more than just a deep threat as he caught 7 receptions on 9 targets for 109 yards and touchdown. However, the player who really stood out to me and who I think is the most important player on this offense is FB Patrick Ricard. He was pivotal on almost every play on the field. He was a lead blocker for most runs but also had the ability to run routes and make clutch catches. He’s like a poor man’s Kyle Juszczyk. When he plays well, the Ravens’ offense performs well.
Advantage – Buffalo Bills
Defense: The Bills defense showed up to the game but didn’t really play defense. They made tackles but did not do anything to disrupt the Colt’s game plan. The Colts went on to gain 472 yards this game with 309 of those coming through the air. The Colts averaged 378 yards per game during the season. This defensive unit made Philip Rivers look good! The Bills have an elite tandem at Safety and they limit a lot of the explosive plays but they can’t do it all. Other position groups needs to step up in order to make this playoff push. The Bills are a very aggressive defense that likes to bring the blitz but that did not translate to sacks. The Bill finished with a grand total of 0 sacks on the day. When playing against the Ravens, those blitzes really need to hit home otherwise Lamar Jackson will exploit the hole and run for 20+ yards every time. Statistically speaking, LB Matt Milano had a good day as he tallied 11 tackles and the aforementioned Safety tandem of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde racked up 9 tackles and 7 tackles respectively.
The Ravens defense absolutely shut down Derrick Henry and the Titan’s #2 ranked run game. They held Henry to 40 yards on 18 carries and this is a guy who averages 127 yards per game. As a whole, the Ravens held the Titans to 209 yards. The Titans exploited the Ravens’ CB Marlon Humphrey early with multiple completions to AJ Brown but Humphrey recovered fast and ended the day with 5 tackles while holding AJ Brown to 83 yards. CB Marcus Peters iced the game with an interception and he ended the game with 4 tackles himself. At the end of the day, the Ravens tallied 1 sack and 1 interception. The Ravens are playing against an explosive Bills offensive with a mobile quarterback so they will need to get to Josh Allen fast in order to keep that offense off the field.
Advantage – Baltimore Ravens
Special Teams: The Bills K Tyler Bass was perfect against the Colts. He went 2-2 for field goals with a long of 54 and 3-3 for extra points. P Corey Bojorquez punted 4 times for an average of 47 yard and downed 1 punt inside the 20. Andre Roberts returned 4 kicks off for an average of 17.3 yards. The Bills did not return a punt against the Colts.
Ravens’ K Justin Tucker uncharacteristically missed a field goal against the Titans. He went 2-3 with a long of 51 but made both of his extra point attempts. P Sam Koch punted 2 times for an average of 50.5 yards per punt. Devin Duvernay returned 1 kick off for 20 yards. The Ravens did not return a punt against the Titans.
Advantage – Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Buffalo Bills - 27, Baltimore Ravens - 24