NHL Power Rankings: Week 17
Well, here we are folks. The last week of the 2021 National Hockey League Regular Season. My rankings are short and sweet this week and will be more or less a statistical recap of the season and my expectations for that team in the post season. I want to thank you for reading my weekly rankings, I hope you found them enjoyable and helpful in keeping tabs on the league. Please enjoy the postseason, it is the definitely most fun/competitive playoffs in all of sports. All records are of the morning of 5.10.21
#16 St. Louis Blues (24-20-9, 57 Points)
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I did not think the Blues were going to make it, but they locked up their spot in the Honda West. The Blues haven’t been great this season, they have been…eh. They have a negative goal differential of -10, which doesn’t bode well for any team going into the playoffs. They have managed to win the games they absolutely needed to but lost games they also should have won as well. There was a bit of a turnaround following a game that made their goaltender, Jordon Binnington, try and fight the entire opposing team, it was enough to spark something. Ryan O’Reilly continues to be such a great player though, a player whom I have grown to love to watch and lead. They are a below 50% corsi team that will play against who I think is the best team in the league in Vegas. I honestly don’t think they have a chance and that says a lot especially because upsets happen so often in the NHL Playoffs.
#15 Montreal Canadiens (24-21-9, 57 Points)
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The Montreal “Rollercoasters” erm I mean Canadiens have been quite a story. They came out of the gate after spending the most in the offseason of any team, fall flat and never find consistency again. They went from top of the division for a couple weeks to fighting for a damn playoff spot. They erased a large positive goal differential and sit -7 before their last 2 games of the season. They saw this year as the year to go for it, they didn’t have the Bruins or Lightning to deal with in the first couple rounds, this was a huge chance and they fell flat. They have a 3-game losing streak right now and a 4-6-0 split over their last 10. I am worried about this team in their battle against the Leafs. We haven’t seen this matchup in decades, and it could end up being a complete dud. However, the Leafs and postseason has been like oil and water, so I see underdog potential here.
#14 Winnipeg Jets (28-22-3, 59 Points)
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The Jets were soaring high in the early to middle of the season. But they faced some injury issues and were starting to really falter. The Jets barely locked up the 3rd spot, so they won’t have to face the Toronto Maple Leafs in the 1st round. They still finished the season with a +11-goal differential and on paper have a team that can win postseason games. I didn’t know what to think about this team this year and was pleasantly surprised to see them make playoffs. I don’t like their current trend and the opponent they drew in the 1st round has bullied this team all season (see below). That said, the Jets have one of the best goaltenders in Connor Hellebuyck, a stud in Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. They hope to get Nik Ehlers back, who has had a dominant season as well. I don’t think we will see them in the 2nd round, I certainly hope not.
#13 Nashville Predators (30-23-2, 62 Points)
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Nashville locked up their playoff spot last week and TLDR’s James lost some money on a bet against Alex as a result. Sorry to hear bud. As if the NHL needs more awards, but if there was an award for the biggest surprise team given their start, my pick would be the Predators. We were asking who they would be selling at the deadline and then all of a sudden found a huge surge and have found a way to make the postseason. Their early part had them battling to improve their goal differential and they will finish the season with a negative differential unless they absolutely destroy the Carolina Hurricanes today, which is unlikely. The Preds will play the Hurricanes in the first round after finishing their regular season against them for a couple games. While the Predators did win the other night, I don’t see how they can beat the Hurricanes in a 7-game series. The Hurricanes are my team to come out of the entire division after 2-rounds so this seems like a mismatch. But we have seen crazier things in the playoffs of the past.
#12 New York Islanders (32-17-6, 70 Points)
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The Islanders have had a rough end to their season and have fallen to the 4th spot where they should remain. They did have a very strong goal differential of +29, which is very strong considering they scored below average in goals for. Their ability to prevent scoring is this team’s bread and butter, and it will make for that interesting offense vs defense battle when they face the Pittsburgh Penguins. Matt Barzal has had a fairly good season though Trotz sent a message by benching the stud last week. The Islanders are a below 50% corsi team which suggests they have the puck in their own zone far too much. Sure, they can keep the puck out of the net most of the time but something’s got to give. I’ll be honest I don’t like this team in the 1st round, especially when facing a very experienced Penguins team. But hey, I have dead wrong before.
#11 Edmonton Oilers (33-18-2, 68 Points)
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The Edmonton Oilers are going back to the real postseason for just the 2nd time in 14 long years. The Oilers have been a much-improved team even from last year where they would have made the postseason in a normal period. The Oilers managed to generate a +30-goal differential, something I haven’t seen in my lifetime. They are playing really great hockey as of late with a 7-3-0 split over their last 10 games. They have limited their back-to-back losses to a big degree. Connor McDavid, your expected Hart Trophy winner, just eclipsed the 100-point mark in just 53 games, and yes, he has 3 more games. The Oilers have the home ice advantage in the 1st round against the Jets (probably). If they play the Jets, I expect the Oilers to make it out of the first round. Winnipeg has been quite bad as of late and the Oilers have just run a muck on the Jets all season. Playoffs, though, are a different beast. I do believe they can give Toronto a run and we could see the Oilers as the team to come out of the Scotia North, granted I have a bit of a bias.
#10 Boston Bruins (31-14-6, 68 Points)
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The 3rd best team in the MassMutual East ended the season with a +32-goal differential. They do have two games left, one against the Capitals but have had a much better run in the last part of the season. Taylor Hall has actually fared quite well and its looking like a nice trade for them there. Brad Marchand has been quite this season because he seems to have learnt from his rat ways *knock on wood*. Though, it’s sad because he’s leading the points race for the team by a margin and has been quite a player this season. This team has so much experience, much like most of the East. Their battle against the Capitals will be one of the best to watch in terms of length and overall hockey experience.
#9 Washington Capitals (35-15-5, 75 Points)
Previously #7
The Capitals have mostly been the team to beat it the East before a little bit of a stumble. They have faced a lot of drama as of late with the incident with Tom Wilson and the Rangers. That being said, the Caps have a goal differential of +27, which is fairly solid. Nick Backstrom has quietly been the best Capital this season and will be a big force for them this postseason. TJ Oshie is finding a huge stride to honor his father and it’s very emotional to see that. You have such a unicorn player in Tom Wilson that is such an impact player. I like this team in their matchup against the Boston Bruins in the first round, but Boston has recently found its stride too since the deadline. This could be the one of the tighter matchups. They have one last game against Boston in the regular season before their 7-game series.
#8 Pittsburgh Penguins (37-16-3, 77 Points)
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Pittsburgh is your top team in the MassMutual East and really raised eyebrows on the way. Their season start was very questionable and even I thought they would struggle to make the playoffs. They saw a management change and things immediately started to turn around. The team ended the season with a +40-differential and a 8-2-0 run through their last 10. They are an about even corsi team, league average goals against but their ability to score goals has been top tier. They will face the likely opponent in the New York Islanders, who are a defense dominant team. I do think the Penguins given their experience and their roster will win that one and I think we could see yet another Caps v. Pens series in the 2nd round.
#7 Minnesota Wild (35-14-5, 75 Points)
Previously #6
Minnesota has been such a fun team this year, for seemingly the first time since they came into the league. The Wild have two games left but have locked up the 3rd spot in the Honda West and will play the Avalanche. They managed to record a +29-goal differential, are currently on a 7-1-2 split over their last 10 games, and this season showcased 2 incredibly impactful rookies that have helped change the outlook of this team for years to come. They will not win the 1st round, in my estimation, but this young team is going to get important playoff experience. This team is going to be a force in couple years and its these playoff experiences that help accelerate young players and team’s development.
#6 Tampa Bay Lightning (36-16-3, 75 points)
Previously #4
Tampa has been the team to beat since last season, they are built down the middle. They have the goaltending, the defense, the offense. They have it all. However, they haven’t had quite the dominant regular season as I would have expected. They have a +38-goal differential which is great. They are above 50% in the corsi rating, which suggests they are still dominating the puck most of the time. Their team SV% is a little suspect at .909, but Vasilevskiy has been amazing, and will end the season with a .926SV% and 2.17GAA. He is your probable Vezina trophy winner. The Bolts play their 1st round opponent tonight to determine who will get home ice in the first ever Battle of Florida. I would love to see the Panthers take the series to be honest, but I have my love for this Bolts team as well. Next to my team’s series, this will be my favorite to watch in the first round.
#5 Florida Panthers (36-14-5, 77 Points)
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Florida has been such a revelation this season. They have 1 game left and could end the season with a 6-game winning streak. Florida ended the season with a +32-goal differential. Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov have continued to lead the charge offensively, but they are getting the job done by committee, which makes them a fun to watch and a dangerous team to play against. They have nearly locked up home ice against their state rival in Tampa, tonight’s game against the Bolts will determine. These two teams have never faced each other in the postseason, and we finally get to see a potential budding rivalry. The Battle of Florida will commence, and I’ll be honest, I am pulling for the team from Miami if only because they have been the punching bag for so long.
#4 Toronto Maple Leafs (35-13-6, 76 Points)
Previously #9
I would argue that the Scotia North was the weakest in terms of goaltending and defense this year, but that doesn’t mean that the Maple Leafs locking up the North with a +42-goal differential and a .704-point percentage is a nothing burger. They made prudent moves prior to the start of the season and around the deadline. They got bigger and a little heavier but still have that immense skill that make them a force in the North. Toronto has had a huge problem with postseason series, but this is the first series in awhile where they are most definitely the better team through and through and we could actually see them win a playoff series for a change.
#3 Colorado Avalanche (36-13-4, 76 Points)
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Two of the top 3 teams are in the Honda West and have been all season. Colorado will mostly likely play the unlikely opponent in Minnesota. The Avs have been dominant, generating a +53-goal differential, 2nd best in the league. Colorado has dominated the 5 on 5 game, with a corsi of 59%, suggesting there are keeping the puck on their sticks. They are well above average in goals for and below average in goals against. This will be a battle in the West in that second round. We all have loved to see the Avs and Vegas battle it out and they should get a 2nd series to give us a true winner.
#2 Carolina Hurricanes (36-11-8, 80 Points)
Previously #1
The Hurricanes officially locked up the top spot in the Discover Central this week and will play the Nashville Predators in the 1st round. Carolina had a hell of season, running a +48-goal differential (prior to their final games) good for 3rd in the league. They scored at a fairly high clip and dominated much of the entire Central. I see them easily making it out of the 1st round and will more than likely face the Tampa Bay Lighting in the 2nd round, if my predictions come true. I see this battle as fierce, but I will honestly give my money to the Hurricanes as the team making it out of the Central. The last time this team made it to the Finals, and incidentally won, was the last shortened season. Maybe we see another go at it.
#1 Vegas Golden Knights (39-13-2, 80 Points)
Previously #2
My expectation for this team this week is they finish their last 2 games and will lock up the top of the Honda West division and the President’s Trophy. This year, the Golden Knights will end the season leading in the goal differential at over +62. Prior to their last 2 games, the team is ranked 4th in goals for and 1st in goal against. Mark Stone has been one of the best leaders and is a huge x-factor for this team. .919 SV% for the team suggests Fleury was back to his old self, alongside great play from Lehner. This team is my pick out of the West after 2 rounds and they will be back in the Stanley Cup Final.