Super Bowl Preview
Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2/7, 3:30 PM
Offense: Through 2 postseason games this season, the Kansas City Chiefs have averaged 438.5 yards per game and that includes more than a quarter without superstar QB, Patrick Mahomes. Speaking of Mahomes, he seemed pretty healthy and spry last game against the Buffalo Bills. The concussion and turf toe injury did not look like it left any lingering effects. Either way, the extra week of rest should have allowed his mind and body to rest and recover. Against the Bills, Mahomes went 29/38 for 325 yards and 3 TD. Aside from the good news regarding Mahomes, the Chiefs will also likely have all running backs at their disposal against the Bucs. RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (CEH) and RB Le’Veon Bell have both missed some time during the post season but are both ready and available baring any freak injury during practice this week. In their absence, RB Darrell Williams has performed admirably but having their #1 and #2 running backs back will do wonders for this offense. In terms of receiving, the Chiefs offense is among the best when it comes to post season passing yards per game (320). WR Tyreek Hill is #2 in post season receiving yards per game with 141 and TE Travis Kelce is #4 with 113.5. As mentioned earlier, the Chiefs have only played in 2 post season games but Kelce leads all receivers with 3 receiving touchdowns. To say that this Chiefs offense can hurt you in many different ways is an understatement. However, I do have one concern with the Chiefs and that concern lies within their offensive line depth. LT Eric Fisher tore his achilles tendon in the win against the Bills. Can the next man step up and handle an aggressive Buccaneer defense that leads the league with 7 post season sacks? That question alone might determine the winner of this game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense ranks #2 among playoff teams averaging 30.7 points per game (The Chiefs average 30). The Bucs are led by future first ballot Hall of Famer, Tom Brady. The saying “Don’t bet against playoff Tom” gets tossed around a lot during this time but honestly he hasn’t shown me he can carry his team to victory when everything else fails. In the game against the Saints, Brady did not do anything spectacular. The Bucs won because Drew Brees made mistakes. In the win against the Packers, Brady brought back more of vintage Tom Brady but also had 3 interceptions. The cannot happen against the Chiefs because those mistakes will be capitalized on. That being said, he still averages 286.7 yards per game in the playoffs and leads all playoff QBs with 7 touchdown passes. The Bucs run game has shown it can be relied on when needed. RB Leonard Fournette has been stellar this entire post season. His skill as a hard nosed runner and receiver has been apparent and he has shown that not playing as much during the season has its benefits. He takes hits and gives hits with reckless abandon and his body can take it. Outside of Fournette, the season long RB starter, Ronald Jones has also been good when healthy. His explosiveness and agility give the defense fits and offer a nice change of pace after facing Fournette. As I’ve eluded to time and time again in these articles and in the podcast, I think the Bucs have the most dangerous WR crops in the league. WR Mike Evans is almost unstoppable in the redzone, WR Chris Godwin is a top 10 WR if he can get over the yips and start catching passes again and WR Antonio Brown has a decorated career as one of the best WRs in the league. There are some injury concerns with this group. Evans sustained a knee injury in the last game of the season but has been playing through it and Brown may or may not be available for the Super Bowl due to a knee injury. Lastly, the TE group for the Bucs is very interesting. TE Rob Gronkowski is the bigger name but TE Cameron Brate has been more of a factor in the passing game as he averages 49.7 yards per game.
Advantage – Kansas City Chiefs
Defense: The Chiefs defense currently allows 335.5 yards per game through 2 post season games. This group also has 5 sacks for 61 yards and 2 interceptions for 47 yards. The Chiefs secondary leads the way in terms of tackling. CB Charvarius Ward has 13 tackles and 1 pass deflection while S Tyrann Mathieu also has 13 tackles, 1 pass deflection and added 1 interception. S Juan Thornhill does look like he has had much of an impact on the stat sheet but a further look into his play show that he has been a shutdown safety and that has been apparent in the game against the Bills when he as targeted 5 times but only allowed 1 catch for 6 yards. The defense line is led by perennial Pro Bowler, DT Chris Jones. Jones gets to the QB early and often. He had 6 hurries against Josh Allen last game. While the offensive line is focusing on Jones, the Chiefs also have a pass rushing specialist in DE Frank Clark as he has 2 sack through 2 games and has proven that he can get to the QB as well.
Going into the post season, the Bucs’ run defense was considered elite and they have continued to prove it through these last couple of games. Through 3 post season games, the Bucs’ allow an average of 85.7 rush yards per game. In total, they allow 350 yards per game. The strength of this defense lies in their defensive line. Last season, DE Shaquil Barrett led the league in sacks. He only has 3 so far in the playoffs but he also has 7 hurries. Opposite him is DE Jason Pierre-Paul. You might remember him from the crazy facemasks and firework incident that blew off some of his fingers. Well, he has been a huge factor for this defense as he has 2 sacks and 7 hurries as well. Backing up this defensive line is the scariest LB duo in the league. Devin White and Lavonte David are super rangy and can get anywhere on the field in a hurry. White leads the team in post season tackles with 26 despite only playing 2 games. David is second on the team with 20 tackles. The most important group for the Bucs is the secondary. They are given the tough task of containing Mahomes, Hill and Kelce aka the most explosive and best offense in football all game long. That responsibility falls squarely on the shoulders of CB Sean Murphy- Bunting (3 interceptions), S Antoine Winfield Jr and S Jordan Whitehead. Winfield Jr has been a prodigy thus far. He is all over the field and makes tackles when they count. He is questionable to play in the Super Bowl with an ankle injury after missing the game against the Packers. In order to stay within range of the Chiefs, this secondary needs to play the game of their lives.
Advantage – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Special Teams: The Chiefs K Harrison Butker has had problems all season and it has been bleeding into the post season. Through 2 games, he has gone 4-5 (80%) on field goals with a long of 50 yards and has gone 6-7 (85.7%) on extra points. Fun fact, the one field goal he missed was at the same range as an extra point. P Tommy Townsend has literally punted 1 time for 44 yards and was downed inside the 20. The Chiefs have returned 3 kick offs for an average of 22.7 yards and 2 punts for an average of 8 yards.
The Buccaneers’ kicker Ryan Succop has been relied on heavily this post season and has stepped up to the challenge. He has gone 8-8 on field goals with a long of 46 yards but he went 8-9 (88.9%) on extra points. P Bradley Pinion has punted 9 times for an average of 43.3 yards and had 6 downed inside the 20. Return-wise, WR Jordan Mickens has returned 7 kickoffs for an average of 21 yards and 5 punts for an average of 7.8 yards.
Advantage – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs 34, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27