NFL Playoff Preview - Wild Card Round
(2) New Orleans Saints (12-4) vs (7) Chicago Bears (8-8)
1/10, 1:40 PM
Offense: The Saints were a huge Super Bowl favorite to begin the year and they are still a huge Super Bowl favorite now and the biggest reason for that is QB Drew Brees and his offense. Multiple reports have Drew Brees hanging it up after this year so look for him to give it everything his 41 year old body’s got and go out with a bang. The Saints could potentially have big reinforcements coming back just in times for the playoffs in superstars WR Michael Thomas (ankle) and RB Alvin Kamara (COVID19). The Saints have had multiple injuries this year to key players in key positions (QB, WR, RB, etc) but still managed to score the 3rd highest amount of points (482) and put up the 6th highest amount of yards (6,023) in the NFC. The takeaway here is that the Saints have depth and are a very well coached team and can win even if they have no running backs or wide receivers and have a tight end at quarterback.
The Bears on the other hand are a completely different story. The Bears struggle with consistency on the offensive side due mainly to shaky quarterback play. The Bears finished the regular season with 5th lowest points scored (372) and the 3rd lowest total yards (5,302) in the NFC. However, there have been two bright spots in this Bears offense in RB David Montgomery and WR Allen Robinson II. Montgomery has finally emerged and is fulfilling the potential that was seen when he was drafted in the 3rd round in 2019. On the season, he achieved a 1000 yard rushing season (1070) and scored 8 rushing touchdowns while also adding 438 yards through the air and 2 receiving touchdowns. Robinson II is a special talent and one of the top receivers in the NFL. He can make a bad quarterback look competent (Yes, I’m talking about you Mitch Trubisky) with his special combination of burst, excellent route running and strong hands that come down with almost every contest catch. He led the team in receiving for 13 of the 16 games and finished the regular season with 1250 yards on 102 receptions and 6 touchdowns. Matt Nagy will have to rely heavily on these two, like he has all season, to give this Bears team a chance.
Advantage – New Orleans Saints
Defense: The Saints came into the season why lofty defensive expectations and they met these expectations. They had a solid 2019-2020 campaign and brought in S Malcom Jenkins to help shore up the secondary. Although the week to week scores don’t necessarily show their defensive dominance, the year report shows that the Saints gave up the 3rd lowest yards per game (310.9) and points scored against (337) in the NFC. LB Demario Davis had yet another remarkable season with 119 total tackles, third year DE Trey Hendrickson burst onto the scene in a big way with 13.5 sacks, and the secondary had 17 interceptions on the year. Chicago’s offensive line has given up 36 sacks this season so I fully expect Hendrickson and Cameron Jordan to wreak havoc on this offensive line.
The Bears have found a lot of success and wins the last couple of years through their defense. Ever since LB Kahlil Mack was traded from the Raiders in 2018, this defense has been a powerhouse but this year was a little different. The Bears no longer lived at the top of the defensive rankings. They finished the regular season giving up the 7th lowest yards per game (344.9) and 8th lowest amount of points (370) in the NFC. For the most part, the defense did what they could and to the best of their ability but the offense’s inability to stay on the field meant more time on the field for the defense and less rest time which leads to mistakes and caused the numbers to skew the way that they did. If the offense can do it’s part and stay on the field, I expect this defense to show the same dominance they have in years past.
Advantage – New Orleans Saints
Special Teams: The historically efficient special teams play that the Saints are used to did not show up this year. K Will Lutz has his worst FG kicking season yet by going 23/28 (82.1%). P Thomas Morestead, however, continued his dominance by punting for a total of 2,674 yards with 23 punts being kept inside the 20 yard line. The Saints did not return any punts or kickoffs for touchdowns this year but Deonte Harris has shown some promise on punt returns by averaging 12.2 yards per return.
When you think of Bears kickers, what do you think of? Cody Parkey double doink? Yeah me too. He is long gone now and the Bears have K Cairos Santos instead. Santos has been incredible in the field goal game this year making 30 of 32 attempts (93.8%) and only missing 1 extra point. P Pat O’Donnell had yet another great year almost punting for 3,000 yards and downing 28 punts inside the 20 yard line. The Bears also have one of the best and most electric return men the NFL has to offer in Cordarrelle Patterson. On the season, Patterson (who also plays WR), returned kickoffs for 1,017 yards and scored 1 touchdown.
Advantage – Chicago Bears
Prediction: New Orleans Saints - 31, Chicago Bears - 16
(3) Seattle Seahawks (12-4) vs (6) Los Angeles Rams (10-6) –
1/9, 1:40 PM
Offense: If I had to describe the Seahawks offense in one word, it would be weird. Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense started off strong. In the first half of the season, we saw Wilson become Mr. Unlimited and put up MVP caliber numbers (317 yards per game, 28 touchdowns in 1st 8 games). We thought Pete Carroll was finally letting “Russ Cook” but during the second half, the entire game plan changed. The Seahawks went back to the run first offense that they ran 2 years ago and Russ’ production took a nosedive (181 yards per game, 12 touchdowns in 2nd 8 games). However, even with all this weirdness, the Seahawks finished the regular season 9th in yards per game (369.5) but 4th in points scored (459) in the NFC. Regardless of the type of offense the Seahawks are running they have proven that their offense is proficient enough to win. Russell Wilson has the ability to turn into Mr. Unlimited and play like the best quarterback in the league. He has 2 explosive weapons on the outside in the form of WR DK Metcalf (83 rec, 1,303 yards, 10 TD) and WR Tyler Lockett (100 rec, 1,054 yards, 10 TD) but also have an above-average workhorse RB in Chris Carson (681 yards, 5 TD). If the Seahawks really wanted, they have the ability to turn it on and have just as explosive of an offense as the Kansas City Chiefs.
The entire success of the Rams offense rests squarely in QB Jared Goff’s hands. Ironically, Goff may not even play because he is coming off thumb surgery and even if he does play it’s a question of which Goff do we see? Good Goff? Or Bad Goff? Flip a coin and there is your answer. When Good Goff shows up, he and Sean McVay are in lockstep and the offense looks unstoppable but when Bad Goff shows up, the Rams struggle to get a first down. If Goff cannot go, the Rams will have to rely on John Wolford who has played in 1 game in his NFL career (last week in a win against the Arizona Cardinals). Outside of QB play, the Rams rely on the play of their running backs as they employ a run first, play action offense. The running back room is a 3 headed monster of Cam Akers (625 yards, 2 TD), Darrell Henderson Jr. (624 yards, 5 TD), and Malcolm Brown (419 yards, 5 TD). All of these guys are explosive, powerful backs that have the ability to break off a long, 20 yard run in a heartbeat. Rounding out the Rams’ offense are 2 900+ yard wide receivers in Cooper Kupp (974 yards, 3 TD) and Robert Woods (936 yards, 6 TD). Both of them are elite talents but inefficient quarterback play has relegated them to a second-tier role. On the season, the Rams finished 5th in yards per game (377) but 12th in points (372) in the NFC.
Advantage - Seattle Seahawks
Defense: The Seahawks defense is mediocre at best. They struggled all season long and as a matter of fact, they have struggled for years since the “Legion of Boom” faded away. The Seahawks do, however, have one of the best linebackers in the league with Bobby Wagner (138 tackles) and also added S Jamal Adams in the offseason. Adams has been injured various times during the season and is currently questionable for the game against the Rams. When healthy, Adams is a force to be reckoned with. The biggest problem that this defense has is it’s inability to produce pressure against the quarterback without blitzing and defending the pass. The Seahawks gave up 285 passing yards per game which is the 2nd most in the NFC but on the flip side, they only give up 95.6 rush yards per game which is the 4th least in the NFC. On the regular season, the Seahawks defense gave up an average of 380.6 yards per game and 23.2 points per game which ranks as 9th in the NFC.
The Rams’ defense is elite. It is far and away the best defense in the NFC. On the season, the Rams rank as 1st in yards allowed per game (281.9) and points allowed with 18.5 per game. This defense is led by DT Aaron Donald who is in the conversation for the most dominant defensive player that this league has ever seen. They also have a shutdown corner in Jalen Ramsey who can literally hold the opposing team’s best receiver to 0 yards. In terms of tackles, S John Johnson III leads the team with 105 total tackles. The Rams play a team first brand of defense defined by gang tackling and rushing to the ball no matter where you are on the field. That energy and effort is what makes this defense so dominant.
Advantage – Los Angeles Rams
Special Teams: The Seahawks’ K Jason Meyers has been perfect in the regular season on field goals and even has a long of 61 yards! He has however missed 4 extra points attempts. The P Michael Dickson has been lights out this season punting for 3,028 yards with 32 downed inside the 20. In the return game, the Seahawks do not have a #1 returner but average 22.5 yards per kickoff and 8.6 yards per punt.
The Rams kicking has been all over the place this year. They have employed 3 different kickers throughout the season who have gone 24/30 on field goals and 38/42 on extra points collectively. Longtime Ram’s punter Johnny Hekker has been producing at his normal clip punting for 3,099 yards with 28 punts being downed inside the 20 yard line. The Rams’ returners average 20.6 yards per kickoff and 6.9 yards per punt with no touchdowns.
Advantage – Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: Seattle Seahawks – 27, Los Angeles Rams – 21
(4) Washington Football Team (7-9) vs (5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)
1/9, 5:15 PM
Offense: The Washington offense has gone through a lot of turmoil and change throughout the season. Presumed future of the franchise, Dwayne Haskins, started the year and through a combination of poor play, bad attitude and terrible decisions was benched and ultimately cut. This led to the remarkable comeback and feel-good story of Alex Smith. 2 years removed from a presumed career ending, potentially life threatening injury, Smith appeared and later started in his first games and completely turned this offense and team around. Smith started in 7 games and won 5 of them. He may not put up the best numbers and may not be the most athletic quarterback but his football IQ and ability to lead an offense speaks volumes. Outside of the quarterback position, the Football Team has a budding superstar receiver in Terry McLaurin (87 rec, 1,118 yards, 4 TD) and what might be a hidden gem in former college WR but current RB Antonio Gibson (795 yards rushing, 11 TD). The offensive line is about average but has allowed 50 sacks this season. They will have to up their game in order to keep Alex Smith upright and increase their chances of winning. On the season, the Football Team is ranked 2nd to last in yards per game with 317.3 and 3rd to last in points per game with 20.9.
The Buccaneers offense.. where to begin? Well, they have possibly the best quarterback to every play the game in Tom Brady who by the just came off a stellar season where he threw for 4,633 yards with 40 touchdowns. He has not one, not two but three Pro Bowl caliber wide receivers in Mike Evans (70 rec, 1,006 yards, 13 TD), Chris Godwin (65 rec, 840 yards, 7 TD) and Antonio Brown (45 rec, 483 yards, 4 TD). The Buc’s running back room consists of a young but talented and explosive Ronald Jones II (978 yards, 7 TD) and a former All Pro in Leonard Fournette (367, 6 TD). Don’t forget about Rob Gronkowski though. The self-proclaimed “Blocking Tight End” racked the 3rd most yards on the team (623) and pulled down 7 TDs. The offensive line is ranked in the top 10 and only allowed 22 sacks on the year. All of this led by a deep throwing, Bruce Arians offense is a scary thought about how good this offense can be. The Buccaneers finished the season ranked 4th in yards per game (384.1) but 2nd in points per game (30.8).
Advantage – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Defense: Washington’s defense was a welcome surprise this year. This unit finished among the league’s worst a season ago and is now a top 3 defense in the NFC. They allow the 2nd fewest yards per game (304.6) and 2nd fewest points per game (20.6). The addition of DE Chase Young seems to have made all of the difference. The rookie was named as a Captain before the season began and certainly lived up to the hype as he racked up 7.5 sacks and was constantly putting the opposing quarterback in uncomfortable situations. The strength of this defense is its ability to defend the pass as it has given up the 2nd fewest passing yards per game with 191.8. The defensive line can generate pressure without blitzing which forces the quarterback to throw it earlier than he intended and the secondary led by Kamren Curl (88 tackles, 3 INT) and Kendall Fuller (50 tackles, 4 INT) are good enough to blanket receivers, making it difficult for them to get open. Overall, this defense generated 47 sacks and 16 interceptions.
The Buccaneers’ defense is no slouch either. The fact that Bruce Arians is an offensive minded head coach doesn’t mean he lets his defense get away with underperforming. In fact, this unit was in the top 5 in the NFC in terms of yards allowed per game (327.1) and was 4th in points allowed per game (22.2). This defense is led by 2 super athletic, rangy and physical linebackers. Devin White only played in 15 games but yet still led his team in tackles by a large margin (140 tackles, 9 sacks). He is complimented by LB Lavonte David (117 tackles, 1 INT). Rookie S Antoine Winfield Jr. has definitely shown he belongs in the league with his 94 tackles, 3 sacks and 1 interception. Don’t forget about this defensive line either. OLB Shaquil Barrett has 8 sacks after coming off (and leading the NFL in sacks) a 19.5 sack season. DT Ndamukong Suh is still as disruptive as ever with 44 tackles and 6 sacks. The defense’s strength lies in it’s ability to stop the run. They were ranked 1st only allow 80.6 yards per game.
Advantage – Washington Football Team
Special Teams: Washington’s kicking has become a problem this season. K Dustin Hopkins went 27/34 (79.4) on field goals and went 30-32 on extra points. P Tres Way however, has performed to what his normal is with 3,504 total yards punting with 23 punts being downed inside the 20 yard line. The Football Team averages a measly 20.8 yards per kickoff return and 5.7 yards per punt return.
The Buccaneers on the other hand, face similar kicking problems. K Ryan Succop went 28/31 (90.3%) on field goal attempts and missed 5 extra points as he went 52/57. The Buccaneers’ offense doesn’t really go 3 and out and punt much so Bradley Pinion only punted for 2,486 yards with 19 being downed inside the 20. This unit does have an extremely fast and athletic return man however. WR Jaydon Mickens has shown a lot of potential and has helped lead this return unit to an average of 21.8 yards per kickoff and 5.9 yards per punt return.
Advantage – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prediction- I’m hoping that Washington comes in and pulls this one off but its not looking likely.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 38, Washington Football Team - 17
(2) Buffalo Bills (13-3) vs (7) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
1/9, 10:05 AM
Offense: The Bills offense was electric this year. They only trailed the Kansas City Chiefs in yards per game (396.3) but led the entire AFC in points per game with 31.3. Two big factors jump off the paper when looking at this offense’s explosion – the maturation and accuracy improvement of Josh Allen and the acquisition of Stefon Diggs. After this season, Allen is making his case for one of the best quarterbacks in the league. His numbers show absolute dominance. He completed 69.2% of his passes for 4,544 yards and threw 37 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. He also added 421 yards rushing and 8 rushing touchdowns. For Allen, this season showed how much he improved this offseason going from 58.8% completion percentage to 69.2%. It does help to acquire one of the best receivers in the league during the offseason though. Stefon Diggs is dominant. Point blank, period. Diggs led the league in receiving yards this season posting a 127 rec, 1,535 yard and 8 touchdown stat line. The scary thing about this offense is they can attack a defense in a number of different ways so it is impossible to completely stop them. Josh Allen can throw deep, he can throw short, he can run the ball. They have two running backs that compliment each other. Devin Singletary (687 yards, 2 TD) is the more elusive back while Zack Moss (421 yards, 4 TD) is the power back. They have a trio of wide receivers that can run a full route tree and catch contested balls and have an offensive line that ranks in the top half of the league. Josh Allen and the Bills need to take advantage of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll’s genius while he is still around because chances are, he’ll be a head coach somewhere else next season.
The Colt’s offense is sporadic. The numbers show consistency but the film does not. The Colts finished the regular season 6th in the AFC in yards per game (378.1) and 5th in points per game (28.2). Frank Reich is an offensive genius who helped the Philadelphia Eagles win a Super Bowl a couple years ago but has seemingly relied on backwards play calling to guide the Colts to an 11-5 record. The Colts run the ball to get ahead but then start passing once they are ahead. Common knowledge and football IQ states that you should run the ball when ahead to keep the clock running and preserve your lead but Reich has put the ball in the hands of inconsistent, side arm thrower, Philip Rivers. Rivers finished the regular season with a stat line of 4,169 yards, 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. While those numbers aren’t bad, they aren’t great either and Rivers’ questionable decision making has sometimes cost the Colts in the win department. The Colts’ strength is their run game. They are 5th in the AFC in rush yards per game with 124.8. This offensive line entered the year as the best offensive line in football and since then have had some changes but are still a top 5 offensive line. Rookie RB Jonathan Taylor has been just as good as advertised and racked up 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns. The biggest question mark on this team is the play of the WR. Outside of TY Hilton (56 rec, 762 yards, 5 TD), this group hasn’t seen much game time. If the Colts can get ahead early and run the ball often, they may have an outside shot to beat the Bills.
Advantage – Buffalo Bills
Defense: The Bills have a solid defense. They don’t necessarily stick out on paper but they get the job done each and every game. They don’t have eye popping numbers but will put their head down and give it their all each and every play. The Bills are ranked 5th in the AFC in yards given up per game (353.8) and 7th in points given up per game (23.4). Leading the team in tackles is S Jordan Poyer with 124 followed by physical LB Tremaine Edmunds with 119. CB Tre’Davious White (57 tackles, 3 INT) has emerged as one of the top cornerbacks in the league and his recent contract extension agrees. The return of LB Matt Milano will go a long way in helping this defense continue through the playoffs. The defensive line is a strong suit for this defense as they often control the line of scrimmage with ease.
The Colts are a top 3 defense in the AFC but much like their offense, they are inconsistent. This unit finished the regular season giving the 3rd lowest yards per game (332.1) and the 5th lowest point total per game (22.6). The strength of this defense is their run defense that has allowed an average of 90.5 rush yards per game which ranks as number 1 in the AFC. The acquisition of DT DeForest Buckner (58 tackles, 9.5 sacks) certainly strengthens this defensive line and has helped transform them to the top 3 defense that they are now.LB Darius Leonard is making a case for being one of the best all-around linebackers in the league. He finished this season with 132 tackles. The biggest weakness of this defense is their cornerback play and sense of urgency. Outside of Xavier Rhodes (42 tackles, 2 INT), the cornerbacks are mostly unproven and are often caught peeking at the quarterback instead of trusting their technique and following their assignment. This defense needs to play from whistle to whistle to make a positive impact on this game.
Advantage – Indianapolis Colts
Special Teams: The Bills have put their kicking trust entirely on Tyler Bass who has gone 28/34 (82.4%) on field goals this year but has gone 57/59 (96.6%) on extra points. This offense is so high powered that they did not have to rely on their punting game as much but Corey Bojorquez punted for 2,082 yards and downed 18 punts inside the 20 yard line anyway. The Bills return game was better than average this season. They averaged 27.6 yards per kickoff and 11.9 yards per punt while scoring 1 touchdown.
The Colts have one of the better kickers on their team in Rodrigo Blankenship. He went 32/37 (86.5%) on field goals and 43/45 (95.6%) on extra points this season. The Colts had two punters this year because Rigoberto Sanchez went on injured reserve for a couple of games due to a cancerous tumor. As a group, the Colts punted for 2,216 yards and downed 20 punts in the 20 yard line. Return wise, the Colts returned kickoffs for an average of 25.8 yards while scoring 1 touchdown and returned punts for an average of 10.1 yards.
Advantage – Buffalo Bills
Prediction – Buffalo Bills – 31, Indianapolis Colts - 24
(3) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) vs (6) Cleveland Browns (11-5)
1/10, 5:15 PM
Offense: The Steelers offense has been hot and cold this season. They completely changed up their offensive scheme this offseason going from a deep ball throwing team to a short, quick throwing team that relies on the receivers to make up the yards. The offense has sputtered multiple times this year and frankly does not look that great. If you listened to the podcast at all, you would know I have no faith in this Steelers team and are surprised that they are 12-4. They are a bad 12-4 team. That being said, lets breakdown some of the numbers posted this season. The Steelers finished the regular season ranked 12th in the AFC yards per game (334.6) but 7th in points per game (26). Big Ben put up some of his worst yardage totals in recently memory with 3,803 yards paired 33 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The running back play has been inconsistent with injuries to James Conner (721 yards, 6 TD) and the offensive line. For wide receivers, drops have been a major issue but if that is fixed and the wide receiver are used in the right offensive scheme, they have the potential for being one of the top trios in the league. Diontae Johnson led the Steelers receivers with 88 rec, 923 yards and 7 touchdowns. Rookie Chase Claypool came in second with 62 rec, 873 yards and 9 touchdowns while TikTok and dancing phenom JuJu Smith-Schuster recorded 97 rec, 831 yards and 9 touchdowns.
The Browns completely turned around their offense this offseason and that is due entirely to the hiring of Kevin Stefanski as their head coach. Unfortunately, there are a ton of questions surrounding this Browns offense and frankly their whole team after recent COVID 19 exposure. Stefanski, along with 2 other coaches and 2 players (Pro Bowl G Joel Bitonio and WR KhaDarel Hodge) will have to sit out against the Steelers. Contact tracing is currently underway so it is a possibility that more Browns players are ruled out as well. There is a strong possibility that the Browns will be without multiple wide receivers and offensive linemen. The current plan is to have Special Teams Coordinator Mike Priefer to serve as acting head coach. With all of the question marks regarding this offense, it will be hard to give an accurate preview but let’s just go over the numbers from the regular season. The Browns finished 8th in the AFC in yards per game (369.9) and 8th in points per game (25.5). Baker Mayfield finished the season with 3,563 passing yards and had 26 touchdowns to 8 interceptions. The two headed backfield of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt finished with 1,067 yards, 12 touchdowns and 841 yards, 6 touchdowns respectively. Jarvis Landry led the receivers with 72 receptions for 840 yards and 3 touchdowns. If multiple players are indeed out, Baker Mayfield will have to play the game of his life for the Browns to have a chance.
Advantage – Pittsburgh Steelers
Defense: The Steelers’ defense is in contention for the top defense in the NFL. They are the reason the Steelers have the record they do. It has been 2 years of absolute defensive dominance from the Steelers. OLB TJ Watt led the NFL in sacks with 15 and he is a force to be reckoned with on that defensive line. The secondary group, led by S Minkah Fitzpatrick (79 tackles, 4 INT) and CB Joe Haden (52 tackles, 2 INT), has been lights out all season and I don’t see them slowing down any time soon. This Steelers defense is also very deep and employ the “next man up” mentality. The injury bug bit the linebacking group early and often but that position has held together and kept the same consistency throughout the season. This unit has racked up 56 sacks and 18 interceptions on the season. In terms of ranking, they give up the least amount of yards per game at 305.8 and allow the 2nd fewest amount of points per game at 19.5 in the AFC.
The Browns’ defense ranks around the middle of the pack. Again, this is hard to preview or predict because there is a possibility that some defensive players end up on the COVID list and miss this game. The big name on this defense is DE Myles Garrett who recorded the 6th highest amount of sacks with 12. He is the key to this defense. When he plays well, the defense as a whole plays well. Other notable names on this defense are team leading tackler, LB BJ Goodson (91 tackles, 2 INT) and former Super Bowl MVP, LB Malcolm Smith (72 tackles, 1 INT). Rounding out the secondary are a pair of ball-hawking safeties in Karl Joseph (67 tackles, 1 INT) and Andrew Sendejo (67 tackles). At the conclusion of the regular season, the Browns ranked 8th in yards allowed per game with 358.4 and 7th in points allowed per game at 26.2 in the AFC.
Advantage – Pittsburgh Steelers
Special Teams: The Steelers had two kickers this year with Chris Boswell and Matthew Wright. The two combined for 23/24 (95.8%) on field goals and 41/45 (91.1%) on extra points. They also had two punters in Jordan Berry and Dustin Colquitt who combined for 3,470 yards and 29 punts downed inside the 20. Ray Ray McCloud led a return group that averaged 23.1 yards per kickoff and 9.6 yards per punt.
Remember how I bashed Cody Parkey earlier this article when talking about the Bears? Well now he is the kicker for the Browns and went 19/22 (86.4%) on field goals and 43/47 (91.5%) on extra points. Jamie Gillan punted for 2,244 yards with 14 of them downed inside the 20. The return group averaged 22.1 yards per kickoff and a meager 4.8 yards per punt.
Advantage – Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers – 27, Cleveland Browns – 10
(4) Tennessee Titans (11-5) vs (5) Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
1/10, 10:05 AM
Offense: Contrary to popular belief, the Titans offense is extremely well rounded and versatile. Many believe this is a run only offense with Derrick Henry being the sole producer and that is simply not the case. Don’t get me wrong, Derrick Henry is an absolutely monster and looks like a man amongst boys out there and he just put up an incredible 2,027 yards rushing and 17 touchdowns BUT Ryan Tannehill has shown that he is capable to shouldering the load if need be. We thought that Tannehill was just a game manager but his numbers and play show differently. In the regular season, Tannehill threw for 3,826 yards at 65.5% completion while adding 33 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. There were times during the season where the run game was not working and Tannehill took the game into his own hands and led them to victory. 2nd year WR AJ Brown missed a couple of games this season due to injury but still managed to pull down 70 receptions for 1,075 yards and 11 touchdowns. In a contract year, former 5th overall pick, Corey Davis showed why he was worth the money with 65 receptions for 984 yards and 5 touchdowns. TE Jonnu Smith (41 rec, 448 yards, 8 TD) has also been a pleasant surprise as he was pretty much a wide receiver playing the tight end position. The Titans also boast a top 3 offensive line. The Titans finished the regular season ranked 3rd in yards per game with 396.4 and 2nd in points per game with 30.7 in the AFC.
The 2020 edition of the Ravens’ offense was a lot different than we expected it to be. Many expected the Ravens to lead the league in yards and points scored and that definitely did not happen. It seemed like the defensive coordinators across the league and figured out how to defend Lamar Jackson and he was incapable of making in game changes. Jackson struggled with throwing accuracy and locating the open man throughout the season. His stats for the regular season are as follows – 2,757 yards passing on 64.4%, 26 passing touchdowns to 9 interceptions while adding 1,005 yards rushing and 7 rushing touchdowns. Due to the regression of Lamar Jackson, the production of the receivers and tight ends fell as well. Marquise “Hollywood” Brown was not utilized as an offensive threat as much as he would have liked and ended the season with 58 receptions for 769 yards and 8 touchdowns. TE Mark Andrews was the second leading pass catcher with 58 receptions for 701 yards and 7 touchdowns. The Ravens started off the season with a 3 man running back rotation but as the season closed out, we saw JK Dobbins (805 yards, 9 TD) take the majority of the snaps while Gus Edwards (723 yards, 6 TD) was second on the list and Mark Ingram (299 yards, 2 TD) was relegated to a healthy scratch. All of this being said, the Ravens seem to have figured out their offense as of late and look to carry that momentum into this Wild Card matchup against the Titans. The Ravens finish the regular season 9th in terms of yards per game with 363.1 and 4th in terms of points per game with 29.3 in the AFC.
Advantage – Tennessee Titans
Defense: The Titans, who are historically good defensive team coached by a defensive head coach, struggled this season. There seemed to have been a culture changed when defensive coordinator Dean Pees retired and they traded away former All Pro DE Jurrell Casey to the Denver Broncos. The Titans then went on to sign DE Jadeveon Clowney (19 tackles) in hopes to replace Casey but he went on injured reserve after 8 games. This defensive unit is led by team captain and leading tackler S Kevin Byard (111 tackles, 1 INT) and CB Malcolm Butler (100 tackles, 4 INT). This Titans squad struggles to defend the pass as they are the worst in the AFC with 277.4 yards given up through the air per game. This could be in part due to their inability to manufacture pressure on the quarterback. The Titans rank 14th in the AFC in yards given up per game with 398.3 and 11th in the AFC in points given up per game with 27.4.
Even with the departure of S Earl Thomas, the Ravens’ defense was almost as dominant as it was last season. Part of that can be attributed to the maturation of young, key defensive player and the addition of one of the best run defenders in the league, DT Calais Campbell. Rookie and 1st round pick, LB Patrick Queen, lived up to all the hype as he led the team in tackles (106). The cornerback duo of Marlon Humphrey (82 tackles, 1 INT), and Marcus Peters (52 tackles, 4 INT) had another stellar year together. This Ravens team does not get an eye popping number of sacks (39) but they do get constant pressure on the quarterback which can in turn throw off an entire offense. This defensive unit posts strong overall numbers as they allow the 2nd fewest rush yards per game (108.8) and the 2nd fewest pass yards per game (221). They also allow the fewest points per game with 18.9 in the AFC.
Advantage – Baltimore Ravens
Special Teams: The Titans kicker, Stephen Gostkowski has struggled mightily this season. He has gone 18/26 (69.2%) on field goals and has missed potential game tying/winning ones as well. On extra points however, he is 46/48 (95.8%). It is still a question on whether or not he plays yet due to the fact that he was placed on the COVID list prior to week 17. Punter Brett Kern has been in and out of the lineup but has punted for 1,695 yards with 22 of those being downed inside the 20. In the return game, the Titans average 20.2 yards per kick return with 1 touchdown and 9 yards per punt return.
The Ravens have the most accurate kicker in NFL history with Justin Tucker. This season he uncharacteristically went 26/29 (89.7%) on field goals and 52/53 (98.1%) on extra points. Just a quick side note, 2 of Tucker’s missed field goals came from 50+ yard attempts. Punter Sam Koch punted for 2,268 yards with 22 of them being downed inside the 20. Return wise, the Ravens sport a 26.7 yard average on kickoffs with 1 touchdown and 9.0 yards on punts.
Advantage – Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens - 35, Tennessee Titans - 31