NHL Power Rankings: Week 4
I won’t take the great effort and spectacle my team showed me into account. They will not be ranked here. Sorry for the homerism everyone. Three weeks in and we have teams in positions that I think raise some eyebrows. We sit 3 weeks and 3 days away from American Thanksgiving, my significant milestone in the season. There’s another interesting milestone and that’s November 1. Historically since the dawn of the “loser point”, only 15% of teams have made playoffs after being 4+ points out of a playoff spot. Yes, if your team is on the cusp, it may be time for some panic. It’s not big sad time yet, just little sad and scared.
#16 Ottawa Senators (4-4-0; 8 Pts)
Previously #11
They are clearly winning big with a +6-goal differential. Ottawa gives up too many chances and that could push eventually push them out of the rankings all together. Their shooting percentage is great, in the double digits, but they need to figure out their defending issues. There’s also a lot of noise around the team, which is never good, sometimes negative press is not good press.
#15 Philadelphia Flyers (4-3-1; 9 Pts)
Previously Unranked
When was the last time the Flyers made it on my list? Idk but they are here now. Positive goal differential and finding ways to dominate the puck in possession and chances. Carter Hart looks great right now and that’s massive for the Flyers. Team is average in chances against and looks what happens when you are able to score. Torts has got to be grinning, at least a little.
#14 Florida Panthers (4-3-0; 8 Pts)
Previously Unranked
Florida was perfect this season and managed to close the gap in their negative goal differential. Florida has a top 7 SV% 5 on 5 which is quite stellar. They are also managing to keep the high danger chances against down, despite missing key D Montour and Ekblad. This team is treading water without their studs, and they could be doing more when they do make it back.
#13 New York Islanders (4-2-1; 9 Pts)
Previously #14
Stop me when I say something surprising about the Islanders. The Isles have a negative goal differential, they rank in the top in goals against 5 on 5, they sit 4th in 5 on 5 SV%, they rank low in scoring chances for...you never stopped me. The Islanders are a low scoring, stingy hockey team. What is new? They might actually have just enough scoring to be a threat.
#12 Vancouver Canucks (5-2-1; 11 Pts)
Unchanged
I may be greatly underrating the Canucks by not giving them any bump. These early rankings are tough to fit because the difference between 12 and say 7 are a lot tighter than they are later in the season. Things seem to be coming together for the Canucks. Best stat I see is that they sit 3rd in 5 on 5 SV%...Thatcher Demko has been so damn good. They are losing possession numbers 5 on 5 so it’s a damn good thing they are goalieing other teams right now.
#11 Tampa Bay Lightning (4-2-2; 10 Pts)
Previously #13
Tampa had a good week, a perfect week in fact. They have a positive goal differential and seem to be finding their stride. I almost wonder if Tampa is marginally underrated at this point…maybe I am crazy. Their 5 on 5 play is pretty sus, luckily they sit 8th in SV%. This team is also fighting the injury bug and it’s a wonder how they will look when they are healthy. Underrated?
#10 Toronto Maple Leafs (5-2-1; 11 Pts)
Previously #6
Woll is the number 1 wall for the Leafs going forward. Leafs give up too many chances, luckily, they are capitalizing on theirs. Possessions numbers are solid enough, but something’s just a little off for this squad. Willy Nylander is the heartbeat right now, which is shocking to see in the regular season. He deserves his pay and I owe him an apology.
#9 Carolina Hurricanes (5-4-0; 10 Pts)
Previously #6
Jury is still out on the Canes. They beat not so great teams. Can this team win against good teams? They play both New York teams this week, so maybe we will get the much-needed data. Shockingly, the Canes sit 2nd to last in GA this season, what’s more is they don’t even sit near the worst part in allowing Chances against. Goaltending just isn’t there for them and that’s the shocking part of all of this.
#8 Detroit Red Wings (5-3-1; 10 Pts)
Previously #5
Two losses in a row for the Wings. That said, Detroit sits with the most goals in the league…yes by 1 goal. They sit 3rd in shooting percentage which is impressive for this group. We need to see this group limit chances against and they will be so damn good throughout the season.
#7 Los Angeles Kings (4-2-2; 10 Pts)
Previously #10
Kings look great. Positive goal differential, perfect record on the road, and showing resiliency when down. Kings sit 4th in high danger chances for and sit with positive possession numbers, they could be the real deal folks.
#6 New Jersey Devils (5-2-1; 11 Pts)
Previously #7
The Devils had a nice week, adding a few wins to their belt. Here’s an issue, they are getting outscored 5 on 5, with a -6 on the ledger. They are finding themselves 2nd in High Danger chances for which suggests two things, they cannot finish, and their goaltending is not working well enough. Add their below average PK% and you have a recipe for a fun team that won’t compete for the Cup. There’s still time to fix the issues.
#5 Dallas Stars (4-1-1; 9 Pts)
Previously #4
Making the Leafs look good is good for a ranking drop…just kidding. They are well behind in the games played department so we have the least amount of data on this team. That being said, they sit with the strongest expected goals against in the league, suggesting the Dallas defending is formidable. They need to find a way to improve their offensive stats.
#4 New York Rangers (6-2-0; 12 Pts)
Previously #8
Tough to argue a big jump when you win not 2, not 3, but 4 games in a row. What does worry me is their lack of possession and scoring chances. They sit with a 45.3% in High Danger Chances for in their favor. They need to find more high danger chances and get their offensive numbers up. .932 team SV% is what is keeping them in the drivers seat but they need scoring support.
#3 Colorado Avalanche (6-2-0; 12 Pts)
Previously #2
Two losses in a row is notable, I appreciate that. It could warrant a little larger drop but I can bet that Nate Dawg and Makar will come out hungry to right the ship early. They rank 3rd in High Danger Chances for %, owning the chances 59.6% of the time. Even a marginal improvement in shooting % will drive this team to the tops of the ranks.
#1B Vegas Golden Knights (8-0-1; 17 Pts)
Previously #2
Vegas Golden Knights are a wagon. How do they respond to an overtime loss to the Blackhawks, beating the Kings in SO. They are a great team that continues to come at you in waves. They are also finding the back of the net at a nice 10.5% clip, which ranks 4th overall. Scoring Knights are scary knights.
#1A Boston Bruins (7-0-1; 15 Pts)
Previously #3
This is most certainly a hipster pick. The Vegas Golden Knights are going to be #1 on nearly 90% of people’s rankings. But Boston has a better GA/G average and better possession numbers, especially on from an expected goals against metric. Boston has already seen a healthy transition of the captaincy and look to be a dominant force once again.
In-Season Cup
Leave it to Bedard and co to finally wrestle the Cup away from the Knights. Tyler sits with the Cup for a while, especially with the next matchup will be Hawks v Yotes. Good for you Ty guy.