NHL Playoff Preview: Conference Finals
The Final Four are set. I have to admit, this is a tough one to write. If you don’t know, my Edmonton Oilers were eliminated by the hands of the very deep Vegas Golden Knights. But we power through! Thursday the puck drops for the Conference Finals, and it will be fun one! I know there is a lot of talk and complaining that there is a major lack of high-profile teams left. The smaller markets are finding their stride and it is what also grows the game. I understand the opinion, I just don’t agree with it. Half of these teams have never won a cup; the other half only have 1. Last time any of the teams won was 2006. Someone new will be winning the Cup! If you care to read it, I wrote a bit of a post-mortem on the Edmonton Oilers. It gives me a bit of time to express some thoughts and emotions about this squad. That will be at the end.
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL
Carolina Hurricanes (1) vs. Florida Panthers (WC2)
Wow was I wrong. This Carolina team is a different breed. This is the Hurricanes team that I was betting on in past years. I didn’t this year because they couldn’t show me it was possible. This team definitely can and has. This team has so much structure, so much depth, and so much grit that it’s impossible now to not see that this team is cut from the cloth as their coach. They play a meat and potatoes brand of hockey that works so damn well in the playoffs. They are finding support from the depth. Jordan Martinook, of all individuals, scores 10 points in the series against the Devils after coming up pointless against the Islanders. The Devils were completely shut down in all facets of the game, they couldn’t move. This Hurricanes team smothers you in every single zone and it makes it very tough for a fast, inexperienced team in the Devils to compete. Sebastian Aho has been very good this entire playoff, having to bear the weight of a lot that we thought would be lost without Svechnikov, Teravainen, and Paccioretty. The goaltending side was more than sufficient. This is the only team that has stuck with their tandem rotation and the likes of both Freddie Andersen and Antti Raanta have sported a .931 and .906 SV%, respectively. This is a recipe for major success. By the other important numbers, Canes sport a 90% PK. They are bought into team defense. This is a team that will be very tough to route as they don’t give into the BS that some other teams tend to try and pull playoffs. Brent Burns is a top candidate for the Conn Smythe by my estimation whos added another dimension to his defense since working with Rod Brind’amour. He is playing hard minutes, chipping in consistently offensively and keeping between the dots in the D zone.
The Florida Panthers have knocked off not only the “best regular season team of all time” but also knocked out the desperate Toronto Maple Leafs in just 5 games. Yes, in front of all of their fans with Radko Gudas screaming like a maniac in the face of the Leafs netminder, an all-time meme thus far into the playoffs. Where has the success of this team come from? Sergei “Goalie Bob” Bobrovsky folks. Bob sported an incredible .943 SV% in the 2nd round and sits with a .918 SV% throughout the entire playoffs. He absolutely goalied the Toronto Maple Leafs. He wasn’t without his support. Captain Aaron Ekblad led the team in scoring in the series with 5 points. Carter Verhaeghe continued his fantastic play, chipping in 3 of the team’s 14 total goals. Matthew Tkachuk was left without a goal, but finished with a +5 rating, and chipped in 5 assists to boot. He was not on the ice for many goals against, he found a way to make a big impact. Paul Maurice has this team going on all cylinders and it’s really fun to watch. Florida sports a better PP but will be up against a beast of a PK. Florida is most certainly getting saved by their goalie as they are -26 in 5 v 5 shot attempts and has allowed 35.3 shots against per game. The Cats will need to find a way to suppress the shots and limit the mistakes. Goalie Bob is most certainly my Conn Smythe leader for the Panthers. He is looking vintage Bob and he’s on the right path towards his first Cup.
I was wrong about both of these teams in their last series. I had their opponents making it this far. The Canes have opened up my eyes to what simple hockey does to teams who are a tad too fancy. For me, the Cats will need to be sharper. The Canes are a patient team that don’t give up a lot of chances to their opponents. The Cats need to capitalize when they can. Carolina will need to keep their high IQ play. I don’t think they will allow Tkachuk to pull them out of their game, they are too worried about Rod kicking their ass on the bench if they make a stupid mistake. The depth will need to continue to shine because the stars are still lacking. The goaltending tandem needs to keep making the save necessary as well. Panthers need Bob to stay white hot and need even more from Bennet and Tkachuk. For me, the structure play of the Hurricanes and their discipline and IQ will be too much for this Panthers team. I think it goes 7 because both teams are playing a high-level game and it’s hard to win consistently at this point. I give Panthers 3 wins, but the Hurricanes will finish the series at home to take home the Prince of Wales Trophy. Canes in 7.
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINAL
Vegas Golden Knights (1) vs Dallas Stars (2)
The Vegas Golden Knights depth shined through and through against the star-studded Oilers. They became the 3rd team in NHL History to advance to the Conference Final at least 4 times in their first 6 seasons, joining the Rangers and Blues (Rangers are an original 6 which barely counts). The Knights rank 1st in teams remaining in goals per game at 3.73. The Knights 5 on 5 play was better than the Oilers in many facets. It started in net. Adin Hill took over for the hurt Laurent Brossoit and he shut the door, sporting a .934SV% against the best Power Play the league has ever seen. The D core of this Knights team is of the deepest left. Alex Pietrangelo, lumberjacking wrists aside, is an absolute beast, even when the team is taking every shot it can against him. Alec Martinez continues to show his impressive abilities as well, chipping in 3 assists. The largest part of this depth comes down the middle, and I have said this multiple times, good teams are built down the middle. When you have Jack Eichel, Jonathan Marchessault, and Nic Roy down the middle all contributing and all playing well over 13+ minutes each, you have strong depth. Marchessault scored a beautiful natural hattrick and made his stamp on the series. Jack Eichel contributed 9 points, but it was his defensive game that had my jaw on the floor. He is such a better player than we remember and it’s the version of Jack Eichel we have been robbed from all those years in Buffalo. Mark Stone continues to be very impactful, all while battling a notable back injury. The Golden Knights in my opinion may be the most well-rounded team left, as they have everyone clicking at a high level, they have the goaltending to back it up, and they have a belief within that many outside did not have of this team. Jack Eichel is my Conn Smythe favorite for this team. Yes, that’s coming from an Oiler fan who was lucky enough to draft Connor McDavid ahead of just Jack Eichel. Eichs may very well get a cup before McDavid.
The Dallas Stars had quite the matchup against the Seattle Kraken, finally slaying that beast in a Game 7 situation that saw the Stars’ netminder keep the Stars very well safe from losing a lead that took a long time to establish. Seattle comes at you in waves all down the lineup and in some cases, it was too much for the Stars. However, the better team through and through won the series. Coach Pete Deboer once again takes his team to the Conference Finals as a first-year coach, it’s just what he does. Better yet he draws the team that just fired him. Joe Pavelski has been incredible this playoff coming off of that ugly concussion from Game 1 of last series. He scores 4 goals in a game, and yes, they still lost. But he quickly backed that up with 4 more goals and an assist. He is a playoff beast and a player that doesn’t always get you there but gets you through. He’s a darling for any contending team. Roope Hintz has been nothing short of incredible in his own right with 7 points of his own. D-man Miro Heiskanen took a shot to the face and was out for a game, and his return brought a huge injection into the lineup. He is a top 5 D in this league folks and shows it time and time again, just no one is listening. Wyatt Johnson has found a way to chip in. The player we all are waiting for to pop off is Jason Robertson and his lack of production on the scoring side has me concerned. I expect him to step up. Oettinger looked human in too many games this series but was an absolute brick wall in Game 7. To James’ point, he responds very very well. He will need to remain more consistent against a better Knights team. My Conn Smythe leader for the Stars is Roope Hintz who sits with 19 points in 13 games. He’s been incredible all playoffs.
I was right about the Stars series perfectly but was obviously wrong about the Vegas series. My respect for the Knights has grown immensely. I know that sounds weird, especially when you see their top D take an incredibly scary and ridiculous chop to your best player in the playoffs. But this team is so deep and gets my respect. The Stars should have earned everyone’s respect. They aren’t that team that can’t score anymore with the stud goaltender. They have the stud goaltending AND they can score in bunches. They are a legit threat. This is a fantastic matchup of two coaches who have a lot to prove after their recent firings and teams who are clicking at high rates of success. I think the depth with the Knights all the way down the lineup is in the favor of the Knights. I am on the Knights bandwagon from here on out. But it will go very long, especially if Oettinger stays hot for a consistent period. This will be a battle, but I am saying Vegas in 7.
Edmonton Oilers Post-Mortem
I am going to take this portion of the article to indulge in some self-pity and discussion about my Oilers. I know this may seem pathetic, but I know there are some Oilers fans out there that may enjoy reading it and I need to express my own feelings. This only exists because this was the first time, I felt the Oilers had a true legit chance at winning the Stanley Cup. I had never seen a team this good, so it hurts way more than last year. I do believe, and some Oil fans need to know, that the players hurt way more than we do. I assure you! This was gut punch, and it was hard to watch McDavid and Drai speak after that game. They were gutted.
The Oilers won 2 less games than last year and were eliminated earlier than last season, but I think we were a better team. I know that sounds weird but it’s the truth. The NHL Playoff structure does not allow for a normal 1-8 or 1-16 format and do this divisional match up in order to generate rivalries. The Oilers finished 2nd in the West behind only the Vegas Golden Knights so in theory we would have seen this matchup in the Western Conference Final assuming both teams beat the lower seeds as we’d expect. The Oilers lost out to the “best team in the West” in 6 games. It is for this reason I am on the Vegas bandwagon. To me, the bad narrative shifts if we say, “Hey for two straight years we lost to the eventual winner in later rounds of the playoffs.” In my opinion, we saw the Western Conference Final play out in Round 2. It’s what happens, you have to beat the team in front of you.
Now there are Oilers fans out there that say we need to get rid of the core, get rid of the coach, make a big shake up, etc. Or even worse, questioning the path of this team now that we have a bottom tier prospect pool and lack of 1st round pick in this upcoming draft. Which would have been low anyways and most likely doesn’t help your team in the next 2 years, which are guaranteed to have McDavid and Draisaitl included. We gave up our first-round pick for Mattias Ekholm, a stout, incredible D man, who loves to be in Edmonton and how has multiple years on his contract. I don’t understand how you can honestly think that was a bad move. It was the BEST move of any major move any other team did at the deadline. Now, the Edmonton Oilers are not deep enough. The D core needs to be improved as the likes of Cody Ceci and Darnell Nurse as top 4 D are not good enough to compete. The team gives up way too many chances and is incapable of managing a lead. I expect Ceci to be moved and replaced with a better D man to help Nurse. He needs his own nursing sometimes and support. On the forward side, Nuge (my favorite Oiler of all time) needs to explain that performance. He was invisible, and he knows it. Hyman and Kane needed to contribute a lot more. We had way too many passengers on this team, and I have to think its because our depth is not there yet to allow McDavid and Drai to drive their own lines and only play 18-19 minutes per game. Depth moves on the top 9 will be due with Yamo’s job in the balance by my account. The Power Play was incredible, it truly was. It felt so good to watch them go to work. But the game is won 5 v 5 in the playoffs and that needs to be addressed. Goaltending did us in a the end of everything. Stu Skinner was not supposed to be our starter this season but won the net. Problem is he was asked to play 12 straight starts, more than he ever did all season. Jack Campbell came in as relief and looked quite good, I was surprised to see Woodcroft not to go to Campbell in that last game all the way through. You aren’t shitting on Skinner doing so, you could be saving him, and we could be playing tonight. Woodcroft was outcoached but deserves another year at the very least. He is a great coach that has things to learn, that ‘s how it works. I fully believe in Coach Woodcroft. He is not as bad as some Oilers fans think.
Overall, I am not the “5%”. The “5%” are the 5% of people who use 5% of their brains. They are the idiots asking to move the core, move the coach, blow the team up, etc. We are so close guys; I truly believe that. I was lifted when I saw the absolute disgust by the big boys, and it shows they care. In their “locker clearouts” today, I felt this team believes they are at Cup or Bust now. Management will be aggressive, and the players will be so hyper focused on improving their 5v5 game. We were a much better team than last year 5v5 but not good enough to beat the best team in the West. We are damn close, and I am proud to say that. I am proud to bleed Orange and Blue and cannot wait to see them back on the ice in October. I am also not that Oiler fan that won’t watch the rest of the playoffs. After a 2-day break, I’ll be back to watching the Conference Finals. That’s the hockey fan in me. Have a good summer Oil Country, Kenny Holland, it’s your time now.
