October baseball is here! After a very fun 162-game season that started in April, 12 teams achieved the honor of playing postseason baseball. Both the National League and American League fields come with surprises, with the top 3 teams with the biggest payroll (Mets, Padres, and Yankees) not making it. This will be the first postseason since 1992 that does not feature either the Yankees, Red Sox, or Cardinals. The Orioles that lost over 100 games just two years ago, are the number one seed in the AL after winning 101 games this season. 2023 has been weird and unpredictable already, we can only imagine what’s going to happen this month as a World Series trophy is anything but inevitable for any team. The top two seeds in each league will get a break before starting play this weekend in the division series (AL - #1 Orioles, #2 Astros…NL - #1 Braves, #2 Dodgers). We start with the Wild Card Series, a best of 3 battle for the lower seeds in each league attempting to reach the next round. Are you ready?!

American League

#6 Toronto Blue Jays vs. #3 Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins have the fewest wins (87) than any other AL team in the postseason. They won a very weak AL Central division and no one is giving them much of a chance to advance far. The biggest storyline for the Twins is their unreal 18-postseason game losing streak that has dated back to 2004. In a short series, they have a good shot at ending that steak. They need their top-2 starting pitchers, Sonny Gray and Pablo Lopez to continue their elite pitching into October. Two of their best hitters, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis are both coming off injuries, and are part of an offense that has been putting up runs at a much better rate down the stretch of the season than it did earlier.

The Toronto Blue Jays grinded their way into a wild card spot. This team has been here for the last couple of years and have not been able to advance. In my opinion, this team underachieved this season but that can all be forgotten if they go on a deep run. They have an excellent starting rotation led by Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt. Add in a resurgent year from Jose Berrios and you have a lethal pitching staff that will be hard to hit. The key to their success however, will be scoring runs behind their two young stars, Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Since their MLB debut in 2019, this duo has yet to win a postseason game. The offense has been disappointingly average all year, they need those two stars at the top of their game for the Blue Jays to succeed.

Prediction - Toronto wins series 2-1. The Blue Jays pitching depth will be the difference in this series. Minnesota will snap their postseason losing streak but won’t make it past this series. Bo and Vlad will each have big hits that will propel Toronto to the next round.

#5 Texas Rangers vs. #4 Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays won 99 games but it still wasn’t enough to win a very competitive AL East so they had to settle for the top wild card seed. Labeling them as the #4 seed doesn’t really seem right because this is a very good team that has one of the best odds and reaching the World Series. Tampa Bay is a team that just finds a way to win games. They have a rich history of deep postseason runs, despite a roster lacking major star power. This year, they enter the postseason having lost their ace, Shane McClanahan and their young star hitter, Wander Franco. Despite those heavy losses, the Rays still win. Randy Arozerna is arguably today’s most clutch player in baseball. He’ll need to continue his bright-light brilliance for this team to make another deep run through October.

The Texas Rangers had one heck of a crazy season. After a hot start to the season, they were in and out of first place in the AL West the last month of the season until on the last day of the season, they lost and allowed the Astros to win the division. The pitching staff has been injured, Jacob deGrom is out for the year, Nathon Eovaldi is back but still not 100%, and Max Scherzer is unlikely to return for the postseason. Plus their bullpen is awful, like really, really awful. If anything will save the Rangers, it’s their offense. Corey Seager (hot take - my AL MVP pick), Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia headline an elite, deep, and powerful lineup that will have to build huge leads early to allow their sorry excuse for a bullpen a chance to hold a lead late in a game.

Prediction - Rays win series 2-0. You can never bet against the Rays in October, no matter what roster they have. Postseason games are won and lost with the strength of a bullpen, and this is a mismatch for the ages. Texas took a huge step forward this season but it ends here.

National League

#6 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. #3 Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers are a scary team to face in October. Even without Brandon Woodruff, the starting pitching behind Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta is great. The bullpen is almost unbeatable, something that is a HUGE advantage in the postseason. Their closer, Devin Williams, has a nickname for his change up - “the airbender” - opponents are hitting .098 against it. Offensively, they’ll need production from their top 3 hitters in William Contreres, Christian Yelich, and Willy Adames. There’s a depth issue there but is certainly good enough to win in October as long as the pitching does their job.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are a bit of a surprise team in this NL field. They managed to secure the final wildcard spot and make the postseason for the first time since 2017. In a short series, this team can win - they have two ace starting pitchers in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Those two will need to come up clutch to have any chance at winning a series cause after them, the pitching is very thin. Offensively, this team is pretty deep, led by rookie sensation Corbin Carroll. Christian Walker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Ketel Marte, and Gabriel Moreno are all great hitters and gives this D-Backs lineup very good depth. They’ll need that bite from their bats to have a shot at winning this series.

Prediction - Arizona wins 2-0. This may be a bit of an upset pick but there’s something about this D-Backs team that I like in a short series. I think Gallen and Kelly will out-pitch the Brewers and the offense will get out to early leads to avoid that lethal Milwaukee bullpen.

#5 Miami Marlins vs. #4 Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies are once again in a wild card spot. Last year, we saw them make the World Series starting in the same position. Although not as dominant as last year, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are still the leaders of this rotation that also features Taijuan Walker and Michael Lorenzen. The bullpen is also great, behind an all-star season from their closer Craig Kimbrel. We all know about the offense with Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, Kyle Shwarber, and Nick Castellanos. Trea Turner had a huge bounce-back second half behind support from his home crowd and Bryson Stott has quietly had an excellent season. This team knows how to win in October and there’s a lot to like about them.

The Miami Marlins are a postseason team, wild. I still don’t know how they made it but here we are. You gotta give this team credit for their grit, they don’t give up and they have baseball’s best record in 1-run games. This is the Marlin’s forth trip to the postseason in their history, 2 of the previous 3 trips have resulted in a World Series championship. They’re so weird, man. You can’t explain what’s going on there. Jesus Luzardo is a solid #1 starter and they’ll need him to be that in this series to have a shot. The offense is led by NL batting champ Luis Arraez, 36-home run hitter Jorge Soler, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. There are pieces there that in a short series could win but my palms are up on this one.

Prediction - Phillies win series 2-1. I’m giving the Marlins a game because it would be weird if they did and that's the way the Marlins are, weird. It would be a massive upset if the Phillies don’t win this series, they are the deeper, more talented, and more experienced club.

MLB Postseason Preview: Wild Card Series